EU-COM estimates the EU grain supply in 2022/23 to be only slightly tighter At the end of April 2022, the EU Commission (EU-KOM) estimated the coming grain harvest in 2022 to be +0.9% higher than in the previous year at 295.8 million tonnes . The cereal acreage was increased slightly; with the area yields one goes z. Currently assuming slightly lower results. The estimated additional harvest volume is due to higher harvest expectations for barley and corn . The total wheat crop is forecast at 137.6 million tonnes, barley at 53.5 million tonnes and corn at 73.4 million tonnes. The rest of 31 million t is distributed among triticale, rye, oats and other types of grain. The EU COM estimates grain consumption to be 1.4% lower than in the previous year at 258.2 million tonnes .Feed and industrial uses are declining, while human consumption is increasing slightly. EU grain imports are expected to fall from 19.6 million tons last year to 14 million tons . The declines can be found in all areas of use. The focus is on feed and industrial consumption. EU grain exports are forecast to be +7.5 million t to 55.5 million t higher than in the previous year. The background to this is the global shortage of supply with above-average prices, not least caused by the war in Ukraine. Support comes from the weak euro exchange rate ($1.05 = €1) The result of the supply balance shows a reduction in overhang stocks from the previous year's 46 million t to 42 million t. The supplies would last for 59 days (previous year 64 days). If the forecast is essentially correct, the EU supply situation in 2022/23 will be in the good average of recent years.The high level of grain prices can therefore not be explained by a future shortage of EU supplies, but rather by fears of supply in third countries . With a free movement of goods , however, the high world market prices also have an effect here via export and import.
