Brexit on 31. Okt.2019 (Halloween) - Really so terrible? Catastrophic scenarios are evoked with the approaching UK exit from the EU. On both sides of the channel a chaos with unknown outcome is expected. Goods and people are supposed to pile up for weeks at the border crossings. For fear of it, orders are already being suspended, production is reduced, workers are laid off, hired customs officers and port facilities expanded; Economic growth will start spinning for the foreseeable future. In the UK, food supply shortages are expected as the country has to import 30% of its food from the EU . How realistic are the fears? The Ifo Institute in Munich has updated a model study to assess the possible impact of a no-deal-Brexit on income in terms of productivity and price changes in the participating countries down to the regional level.The United Kingdom and Ireland are the biggest losers in household income. The British should lose -2.7% ; that is per capita and year losses of an average of 875 € . The mechanical engineering and pharmaceutical industries as well as the food trade are heavily affected economic sectors. For the location of London with its many financial companies, the economic researchers even calculated losses of 5,800 € / capita per year . The Republic of Ireland is said to be hit hardest at -8.16% . Agriculture plays a significant role on the green island. Supplies of dairy and meat products will be a problem on the border with Northern Ireland . For fear of future duties and possible disabilities are already usual upfront transactions omitted. The result is massive price falls in Ireland.For the Netherlands, the experts calculate a loss of -1.64% to -1.71%. In particular, the port locations will be burdened by the expected faltering traffic. At -1.4 to -1.5% , Belgium is not without it. France's losses are estimated at -0.54% . Germany is expected to suffer income losses of -0.72 to -0.80% . The focus is on the industrial sector, especially in the automotive industry. For the individual federal states, the Hamburg hub stands out with € - 170 per capita and year , but NRW and Baden-Württemberg are also hit with € 126 and € 116 per capita per year respectively. Of the Scandinavian countries, Denmark should be burdened with - 0.90% and Sweden with -0.80%.Norway, on the other hand, is expected to benefit by +0.5% to +0.6% due to crude oil deliveries . With the exception of Great Britain and Ireland, income losses are still manageable. There is no reason for disaster scenarios . On the two islands, however, Brexit will be stronger and more sustainable.
