Oct estimate: IGC corrects soybean harvest 2020/21 slightly downwards The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates the soybean harvest for the 2020/21 marketing year to be only 370 million t (previous month 372.5 million t.). Compared to the weak previous year, the increase is approx. 32 million. The main polluters are the two largest growing regions, Brazil and the USA . Global consumption is estimated at a slightly higher 370 million t . Compared to the previous year, use increased by 17 million t. The IGC reduces the surplus stocks to 46.5 million t (previous month 50 million t). The US soybean harvests last year were marked by a rainy sowing period, which led to reduced acreage and delayed cultivation dates. The harvest result was correspondingly poor at 96.7 million t .However, the high level of excess inventory as a result of China's reluctance to buy has contributed to an adequate supply situation. There has recently been an increase in demand. The reason for this is the lack of dried maize pulp (DDGS) as a result of the sharp decline in ethanol production. The collapse in the price of (bio) fuels makes bioethanol production less profitable. For the current marketing year, a US soybean harvest of approx. 116.5 million t expected, slightly below the assumptions made in the previous month. One assumes a smaller cultivation area and average yields. However, the harvest results in the individual growing areas are very different. The Brazilian soybean harvest completed in the first half of 2020 is estimated at 127 million t . Rainfalls, dockworkers' strikes and, most recently, the Covid pandemic have led to impairments. A record result of 133.5 million tons is forecast for the harvest in the first half of 2021 .However, the La Niña weather phenomenon is still causing considerable uncertainty. The low rainfall is already affecting the current sowing. The Argentine soybean harvest in the first half of 2020 is only estimated at an average of 49 million t . Dry periods have affected the yield. Increased export taxes and obstacles to road transport as a result of the coronavirus pandemic are leading to bottlenecks in the outflow of goods. A large oil mill had ceased operations due to a lack of workers. For the harvest in the first half of 2021, an average amount of 51.8 million t is predicted. On the demand side , China stands out again with high imports of 99.5 million t. or 60% of world trade. The USA will initially be considered as a supplier in the coming months with almost 60 million t of export potential .In the following year, Brazil will be the first address for Chinese buyers with a total export of 87 million t . 60% of the Brazilian harvest is said to have already been pre-booked. EU imports are falling to 15 million t . Soy prices have risen sharply in the past few months. High increases in consumption have quickly reduced stocks in medium-sized harvests. Fears of supplies as a result of the restrictions caused by the virus pandemic increased purchases. However, there can be no talk of a fundamental supply crisis. The most recent price developments have stabilized at a somewhat more moderate level for the time being.
