IGC: Rising soy supply in 2021/22 The International Grains Council (IGC) assessed the global supply situation in the soy sector as higher in its October issue. The global soybean harvest is now just under 380 million t (previous year 366 million t). Consumption is estimated at 376 million t (previous year 361 million t). This results in a final inventory of just under 60 million t (previous year 56.6 million t). If China is excluded, there are 27.2 million tonnes (previous year: 23.8 million tonnes) of final stocks. The Brazilian harvest in the spring months of 2021 is estimated at 137 million t (previous year 128 million t). 84 million t of this are exported. A result of 142 million t is expected for 2022 due to the increasing cultivation area. The US soybean harvest, which is in the final phase, is expected to deliver 121 million t (previous year 115 million t). Exports are estimated at a reduced 56 million t. The storm damage to the US port facilities impaired transport. The Argentine soy harvest in the 1stThe first half of 2021 will drop from 49 million t in the previous year to 45 million t. For the coming year, 47 million t is expected again. Argentina mainly exports soybean meal and soybean oil. According to IGC estimates, in addition to its own harvest of almost 19 million tons, China will import around 100 million tons of soybeans (previous year 96 million tons). The Middle Kingdom accounts for more than half of the world's stocks with a supply of almost 33 million t. The EU-27 has a soybean harvest of 2.8 million t. For the consumption of a slightly increased 18 million t, imports of a little more than 15 million t of beans are required. In addition, there are soybean meal imports of a further 15 million t. Overall, the supply prospects in the soy sector are improving due to an increasing supply, while the increase in demand is moderate. However, the scarce competitor products palm oil and rapeseed have recently caused the share price to rise again. The downward trend in Chicago prices for months is entering a price consolidation phase of unknown duration.
