IGC world wheat estimate: big crops get bigger
The most recent estimate of the international of grains Council (IGC) increased its assessment of the global grain harvest for the umpteenth time 2014/15. End of June it came from a result of 1,949 million tonnes. The proposed end of August estimate is estimated at 1,976 million tonnes, approximately 27 million tonnes higher.
The additional amounts have been found the greater part of the wheat with 14 million tons and 10 million tonnes of maize . The substantial increases are + 10 million tons each from the EU and Russia, smaller volumes from China. While the U.S. crop is prized essentially constant with the previous year, the Canadian production is less classified after the record year 2013 to approximately 17 million tonnes. The sum of small corrections in the other countries explained the rest.
The most recent harvest estimate of the IGC left yet -16 million t behind the previous year. The figures are tying the wheat, maize is 9 million tons missing up to the record results of the previous year. The so-called "small" cereals deliver the remaining amount.
However, more than the grain offering in this year higher than in the previous year, because of significantly higher initial stock of 60 million tonnes at the beginning of 2014/15 is similar to the small amount of crop fails. At the end of the overhang stock again to 23 million tons to 423 million tons should be increased.
According to the documents of the IGC, the supply situation is on the World cereals market with 21.8% closing stock measured in consumption (last year 20.8%, prior year 18.6%) moderately above average to consider, if one assumes a multi-year average of the IGC by 20.5%. The supply situation for the wheat and maize are classified.
The slightly above average supply situation caused slightly below-average global grain prices. The forward rate on the stock exchanges have found after the adjustment sliding from the mid-August Boden and tend mostly sideways at a reduced level. While maize downward potential Not yet can be excluded, the wheat seems to consolidate with small upward trends. Wheat harvests walked mostly up on those in the southern hemisphere with lower volume and little prospect of growth. In the case of maize crops have not yet and still not be underestimated harvest risk in both directions.
Even though the U.S. Department of agriculture USDA other estimates based on other survey techniques, the matching statement a slightly above-average supply situation remains 2014/15.
