IGC estimates world grain harvest and consumption in 2020 is lower than in the previous month - The International Grains Council has 2020 Apr. edition the world grain harvest in 2020 from the previous month slightly lower t estimated in its most recent on 2,218 million. The decline is primarily due to lower wheat production, while global corn production has increased marginally. Consumption is expected to drop to the same order of magnitude at 2,222 million tons . In this case, too, the wheat is largely responsible for the decline. The inventories worldwide are calculated at a slightly reduced 617 million tons. The supply figure drops to 27.7% final stocks for consumption. If China is left out due to a small participation in world trade but a high share of stocks, the supply figure is 15.1%. Without China, the storage quantities are sufficient for approx. 46 days; in 2016/17 there were still 56 days.The supply figures are still above the multi-year average . This is a reassuring result under Covid19 conditions as a number of countries are adopting a more restrictive grain trade course that has driven up wheat prices. The IGC estimates the global wheat production at little changed 764 million tons compared to the previous year. Consumption is expected to increase to 755 million tons . This results in an inventory build to 289 million t, which is significantly above the long-term average. With 38% final inventory measured by consumption, an above-average supply situation can be calculated. However, there are reservations about the Covid19 pandemic due to limited trading activity. The IGC estimates worldwide corn production to be 3.5% higher at 1,158 million tons compared to the weak previous year. However, consumption is only expected to be 2.5% to 1,173 milliont rise. The background to this is the sharp decline in corn use for bioethanol production. Nevertheless, the final stocks drop to 281 million t and are sufficient for approx. 87 days. In 2017/18 the overhang stocks were still at 341 million tons. The estimation results still contain considerable risks , which are not only weather-related, but can also be caused by trade restrictions as a result of the Covid19 pandemic.
