Jan-2023: USDA estimates world grain supply very cautiously. The US Department of Agriculture has shown its Jan 23 issue very cautious with more recent crop numbers. In particular, the most recent information on the results in Russia and Australia was not adopted because it was not yet believed to be sufficiently reliable. In essence, the fundamental confirmation remains that the world supply in the grain marketing year 2022/23 will be significantly below that of the previous year. Measured against the price-determining assessment standard, the global ending stock falls from around 27 to 26% of consumption. The figures without China are more meaningful because the country does not export anything despite 50% of world reserves. As a result, only 13.6% of consumption in the rest of the world is superimposed; that's only enough for just under 50 days (previous year: 55 days). The follow-up supply to the new crop becomes more critical as a result. The USDA estimates that the global supply situation on the wheat market is becoming increasingly scarce, with production remaining almost unchanged and consumption slightly declining.Closing inventory excluding China slips from 21% to 19% of consumption, the lowest it was 6 years ago. If the latest harvest reports from Russia and Australia are confirmed, an additional quantity of + 9 million tons of Russian and + 6 million tons of Australian grain, with a focus on wheat, can be expected. This would significantly improve the US supply estimates of the January 2023 edition - with corresponding consequences for pricing. The USDA estimates that the global supply situation for corn , which accounts for 50% of the world grain market, will be significantly tighter for the current year 2022/23. A worldwide production of 1,156 million t is compared to a consumption of 1,165 million t. The shortfall is covered by reducing inventories. Excluding China, the excess inventory falls to 10.2% of consumption and lasts for just under 37 days (previous year: 43 days). The USDA reduced the corn harvest in Argentina by 3 mln t compared to the previous month's estimate as a result of the drought; also in the case of Brazilian corn , in the case of the main crop in the south of the country, a reduction of 1 milliont expected. However, the larger Brazilian catch crop after soy could be high due to area, but that is still uncertain. Stock market prices reacted to the USDA report with contrasting developments. Wheat and corn prices rose on the Chicago Stock Exchange , while prices for wheat and corn hardly changed in Paris . However, changes are expected in the coming days.
