MARS lowers yield forecasts for the 2023 EU harvest In its June 2023 issue, the Agricultural Meteorological Institute of the EU Commission (MARS) revised the previous yield forecasts for 2023 downwards on the basis of the latest climate data. Due to the persistent drought, the wheat yield forecast has been reduced by 2% compared to the previous month. In the case of barley, the area yields should even be -3% lower than was assumed in May 2023. Spring barley is hit even harder with a yield loss of -4%. In a 5-year comparison, the summer fruit comes off worst at -11%. On the other hand, an above-average result for the 5-year average is predicted for rye , but has dropped somewhat compared to the previous month. The rapeseed yields were reduced by 1% to around 33 dt/ha, but still remain above average. Potatoes and Z. beets were downgraded in yield by -2 and -1% respectively compared to the May estimate.The basis of these yield forecasts is the evaluation of climate data against the background of long-term empirical values of the influence of weather developments on yield formation. The drought in large parts of Spain, southern France and northern Italy was replaced by rain that fell too late without affecting the harvest. Yields on the Iberian Peninsula are estimated to be between -38% and -43% below multi-year averages. The sometimes heavy rainfall in Italy has not always been helpful. In the south-eastern European countries, however, continued sufficient rainfall has ensured good stock development with the prospect of high yields. On the other hand, in May/June a large dry area spread across large parts of Germany and north-eastern Europe with significant yield losses. This quickly made up for the previous rainy season in spring. The groundwater supply not only remains insufficient at a depth of 1.80 m, but is also insufficient in the top layer.Late-ripening varieties and fruits are affected.
