Future prospects for China - with reservations The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture, the FAO, the USDA, Rabobank in Beijing and other institutions have developed scenarios for the Chinese pork supply for the coming years up to 2030. The Chinese themselves predict a very optimistic variant. In the current year 2021, Chinese own production is expected to have increased again to over 45 million t. That would correspond to a little more than 80% of the initial situation in 2018. Imports are expected to decrease from 5.2 million t to 4.6 million t. In 2025/26, some institutions expect the Middle Kingdom to have reached the level of production of 2017 at 54.5 million t . For the following years up to 2030, further growth in the direction of 59 to 60 million t is predicted. On the demand side , it is assumed that consumption will increase. The main driving forces are the still growing population and a sustained increase in income of 5 to 6%.Falling meat prices again will stimulate the increase in consumption. An increasing degree of self-sufficiency in the future will lead to a reduction in the currently high import figures. The estimates assume that only around 1.3 million t of pork will have to be imported in 2029/30. Exporting countries that are largely geared towards deliveries to China will have to make considerable efforts to find alternative sales channels in the meantime. This will particularly affect Spain. This development will also be felt indirectly in the EU internal market. However, there are also critical reservations about the predictions. It is questionable whether China will actually get the ASP under control to such an extent that no further significant setbacks occur. There is currently a new wave of ASP with natural and / or attenuated live vaccines. 7 to 8 million sows or 20% of the herd are said to have fallen victim to ASP recently.
