China's herds have sharply declined - opportunities for EU exports?
The recent pig census in China in April 2014 showed a reduction of 428 million Schweinebestandes to - 3.7% compared to the previous year. Fallen in one month alone the animal figures to 1.3%.
In the sows with 47 million animals, the decline to the previous year is 6.8%. Over 1 million sows were counted less.
The inventory reduction has taken place primarily in the small flocks of backyard attitudes.
The causes for the seasonal decline in the spring hang closely together with the Lunar days, which held the end of January in China. Pigs are specially for this occasion fattened and slaughtered. In addition contribute to considerable losses diseases and the cold season.
This year, the enormous economic losses have had a substantial impact, to reduce the herds or abandoning. A Chinese pig farmers has lost 45 to €60 per pig. The main reasons were once the pork prices fallen by 30% on unusual 1.65 to €1.70 / kg. Wheat and corn prices were in southern China between 25 to 28 €/ dt. Given the poor feed conversion feed costs a lot are higher.
The State has 65,000 t pork in three months bought and taken in stock. This amount is 4.3 million tonnes per month given the volume of a battle much too low to produce effect.
The stock off stagnation, however, contributed to a significant shortage of meat revenue. Mid May 2014 pig prices recorded again around €2.15 per kg, but still below average, but at least enough to cover the variable costs.
The strong reduction of the number of sows will be noticeable to the end of the year 2014 in missing pig numbers. At the same time the seasonal consumption is increasing. This will drive the consumer prices, a development that the State reluctant to see. Therefore, all efforts be undertaken to stop the decline and to rebuild at least sow housing.
The battle volumes can be but not so soon compensated. It is therefore assumed that the false demand via rising imports will be compensated. That could cause already fall 2014 about higher orders from abroad. Given the PEDv-related supply difficulties in the United States, and European shipments may have a slightly greater chance of importation.
