EU-COM forecast: EU pork market 2018 and 2019 with few changes In its spring issue of short-term forecasts for the agricultural markets, the EU Commission (EU-COM) does not expect any major changes in the pork market for the years 2018 and 2019. Gross domestic production is expected to increase by 0.9% in 2018, but by 0 again in the following year , Lose 4% . The order of magnitude is around approx. 23.8 million tons of pork.Consumption is estimated at a slightly increasing 21.3 million t . The per capita consumption is calculated at an unchanged 32.3 kg per inhabitant. Self-sufficiency remains at 112%. EU pork imports remain below 0.01% of domestic consumption. Exports peaked at 2.8 million tonnes in 2016, with exports to China. For the years 2018 and 2019, the EU-COM anticipates reduced exports of between 2.5 and 2.6 million tonnes. The deliveries to China still play an uncertain role.The trade dispute between the US and China contains additional risk potential, as it also affects other international trade flows. Predictions on pig prices have not been made by the EU-COM. The current price level of € 1.45 / kg will not be easy to assert in the international environment of significantly fallen pork prices. In the US, the prices are converted at € 0.83 / kg; Brazil and Canada are below the € 1 / kg mark. In China, pork prices have fallen by 25% since the beginning of the year and by 14% in Russia. Hopes are focused on the upcoming barbecue season , which usually contributes to higher summer prices when supply declines.The increase could be much more subdued this year . A comparison with previous years is therefore not convincing, because the demand boom from China should not be repeated.
