Steep courses for rapeseed – What are the driving forces? since beginning On June 1st, 2023, the development of rapeseed prices reversed from a long-lasting descent into a surprisingly steep upward movement. Given the imminent harvest supply, the question arises as to what is driving this price development. The harvest estimates for Germany assume a similarly high result as in the previous year. After the heavy rains in spring, the stocks have developed well. However, the recent dry period has put the brakes on possible higher yields per hectare. At the EU-27 level, production is expected to be slightly higher than in the previous year. In the two large production areas, France and Germany, the area under cultivation increased significantly. Consumption is classified as lower in 2023/24, so the high imports of the previous year will be lower. At world level , a rapeseed harvest is expected to be slightly below the significantly increased level of the previous year.In particular, the 40% lower result in Australia due to El Niño has an impact; the acreage for the Nov/Dec 2023 harvest has been significantly reduced. In addition to the specific supply-demand ratios, the competitive prices of palm and soybean oil also play a decisive role in the price of rapeseed; In addition, due to the use of biofuel, there is a dependency on the price of crude oil. Palm oil prices have recently risen suddenly from 700 to 750 €/t. In the background is the El Niño weather with drought in the two main growing regions of Indonesia and Malaysia. Significant production losses are expected. Crude oil prices have tended to fall due to the weak global economy, despite cuts in oil production by the OPEC countries. Soybean prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange have risen by almost 15% within 2 weeks due to the drought in the major US growing areas. Canola prices are up 13% on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange .Due to a long weekend due to a public holiday (Juneteeth Day, June 19) in the USA, the price development did not continue for the time being. In view of the unpredictable development of the war in Ukraine and the continuation of the Black Sea Agreement, the market and price development in the rapeseed sector remains extremely unstable. However, price levels as in 2022 are not to be expected.
