U.S. beef prices soaring pull with U.S. pork prices only partially
The U.S. beef prices reach unprecedented heights of equivalent of €3.40 per kg. The multi-year price range in the past few years moving between 2 to €2.8 per kg considerably lower.
Cause of the enormous price increase is sustained for almost 2 years drought in the southern areas of pasture that have led to a massive reduction of meat cattle. Also the high corn prices have limited the attractiveness of the US beef. The production decline has made, that the United States to a net importer.
A rebuild of the cattle stock takes time. According to the USDA is not expected before the year 2017 with an equally high bovine herd level from 2010 to 2012.
The U.S. pork prices should according to the expected decline in the PEDv plague from its peak in the Aug. 14 with over €2.10 / kg already in Sept and Oct 2014 to average €1.45 / kg fall back.
In contrast, indicate continuing the forward prices for beef for the rest of the year 2014 by far in the new year of 2015 into high prices amounting to approximately €3.45 / kg. How high beef prices in the area are curtailing the projected drop of in pork prices, is questionable. This pessimism is reinforced by an increasing U.S. poultry meat supply. Here, the Turkey plays a back greater role than in the past before the Christmas season. Turkey production in the United States has risen again after years of decline.
The future level of PEDv cases of infection in the pigs remains uncertain. The currently observed decline in one-third of the peak level decreased. to what extent a further reduction will take place, remains unclear. With the increasingly colder fall/winter season 14/15 the danger a back growth.
The European pork and beef prices are clearly secured the tight worldwide supply of red meat in their price floor in the foreseeable. A drastic drop in prices is certainly not discernible.
