USDA: Unexpected Upvalue for the 2019 Harvest - stock prices plummeting The much- anticipated US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimate at the start of August surprised with unexpected results. The global wheat harvest was reduced by approx. 3 million tonnes down from the previous month , but the global corn crop was up by the same amount. On balance, overall production at world level has not changed. On the use side, wheat consumption was cut by 2 million t, and maize 6 million t less than in the July estimate . The accounting for supply and use resulted in higher final stocks of 621 million tonnes or 28.5% of consumption. The main changes in wheat were production cuts in Russia, Ukraine and the EU of 1 million tonnes each. In the case of maize, the harvest was surprisingly increased by 0.6 million tonnes to 353 million tonnes and increased by 2.5 million tonnes for Ukraine. Consumption cuts for wheat are spread over several smaller volumes in the main exporting countries.The reduction in corn consumption took place in the USA, Brazil and China. Compared to the previous year , it remains in the determination of a 1.2% higher global crop and a 2.6% increase in consumption. The global final stock drops to 622 million tonnes or 28.5% of consumption. In the previous 4 years, the supply figures were around. 30% of consumption. It also remains in determining that the wheat supply will continue to be classified as above average, while the corn balance is much tighter than in previous years to assess. In the latter case, there are still some risks to overcome. The surprise is that, as expected, US corn acreage has been subsequently lowered due to order bottlenecks in May 2019, but at the same time the yield expectations in the major US corn regions are higher.However, higher area yields are already questionable given recent weather developments in the US corn belt , but have not been included in the USDA report. Stock prices in Chicago slumped -8.3% for corn and -5.8% for wheat . However, the post-US dollar prices have largely remained at the lower level. Today, during the day, it will be revealed at the Paris Stock Exchange , to what extent the decline in the price will be dealt with.
