Oil seed market: Improved situation in the oil seed market, but rapeseed remains scarce and expensive The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised global oil seed production slightly downwards in its latest October estimate. Compared to the previous year, generation is even 4.3% higher. Consumption is expected to increase by 3.5% year-on-year. This improves the global supply situation and tends to improve. Soybean production in 2021/22 is estimated 5.5% higher than in the previous year. Consumption is expected to increase by 4%. This increases the inventory and ensures falling rates, unless the freight costs and exchange rates have the opposite effect. Brazil is expected to have a record harvest of 144 million tons in the spring of 2022. However, there are fears about the La Niña weather phenomenon with dry periods. 93 million tonnes of beans are estimated for export; in addition there are 17 million tonnes of soybean meal.The main recipient country is China. The USA expects earnings from the current harvest to be 121 million tons, 5.4% higher than in the previous year. The estimates have continuously improved compared to the previous months. The export volume is estimated at almost 57 million t (previous year 61.5 million t). The storm damage to the port facilities slows the flow of goods. The inventories are expected to rise to 8.7 million t (previous month's estimate was 5 million t). The Chinese are the main buyers. The Argentine harvest this spring 2021 was 46 mln t and should be in the spring months of March / April . Will increase to 51 million t in 2022 . Argentina mainly exports soybean oil (6.5 million t) and soybean meal (29 million t); the export of soybeans is comparatively low at 6.3 million t. On the import side , China is at the forefront with an unchanged 101 million t or almost 60% of world trade. Compared to the previous year, imports are only expected to increase by around 2 million t.The EU-27 purchases an additional 15 million tonnes of beans, 17 million tonnes of meal and 0.55 million tonnes of oil in North and South America in addition to the 2.9 million tonnes it produces. The EU import volumes have only increased slightly. The main suppliers for beans are Brazil and the USA. In the case of soybean meal, Argentina and Brazil share deliveries in similar quantities. The USDA estimates the supply situation on the global rapeseed market at only 67.36 million t. (Previous year 72.5 million t). The Canadian harvest , originally estimated at 21 million t, will be scaled down to 13 million t as a result of the heat wave. Canada's exports are falling from the usual 10.5 million t to 6.3 million t . The EU-27 is estimated at 17.1 million tonnes; that is almost 5% more than in the weak previous year. EU imports will be reduced from 5.3 million t in the previous year to 4.6 million t. Worldwide stocks have fallen from a previous 7.6 to 4.1 million t. Rapeseed remains scarce and expensive worldwide.After 2 years of stagnation, palm oil production is expected to increase again by 5% in 2021/22. Malaysia and Indonesia play a major role in this, with a production share of 80% and an export share of 90% on a world level. The inventories are little changed below average. The palm oil prices remain at a high level. Palm oil is the most important competitor to rapeseed oil. The prices in the soy sector are falling noticeably on the Chicago Stock Exchange. The soaring of the rapeseed prices will be broken off by the latest developments in the oilseed market. The palm oil prices are kept high by the increased crude oil prices.
