USDA: Febr issue of world grain estimate little changed - weak stock market prices The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) changed the result of the previous month only slightly in its monthly estimate of world grain supply . Expectations of major trend-setting corrections were disappointed. The total harvest is still estimated at 2,167 million tons . The USDA forecasts consumption in the 2019/20 marketing year to an increased 2,178 million t . The current production and consumption move apart somewhat compared to previous estimates, there is still a small shortage. The inventories fall from 630 to 616 million t this year. Measured by consumption, the final stocks are still a good average 28.2%.Without China, the supply figure for consumption will drop from 16.1% to 15.3% ; that is only a narrow average. Nevertheless, due to the coronavirus epidemic and its consequences for the global economy, China is becoming an incalculable factor on the import side. The future Chinese imports of wheat, corn and soy remain open. The global wheat harvest remained essentially unchanged from the previous month at 764 million t. The cuts in the catastrophic Australia harvest have been confirmed. The results in Argentina have been revised up slightly. Global wheat consumption rose slightly in 2019/20 to 654 mln t in the previous month, almost 20 mln t above the previous year. Global wheat stocks will rise from 278 to 288 million tonnes this marketing year; measured by consumption, this is an above-average high of 38.4%.However, the wheat supply figure without China is only just 22.7% . The drop in exports to 50% in Australia plays a role in the further development of wheat prices. The Russian export restrictions are also noticeable. In the case of the global corn harvest , the USDA estimates the harvest result at 1,111 million tonnes to be slightly higher than in the previous month, but remains at approx. 11 million t below the previous year's level. Consumption is rated at a significantly increased 1,135 million tonnes above the harvest result. This means that the shortfall from the reduction in inventories from 319 million to approx. 297 million tons will be disputed. The supply figure drops from 27.8 % to the current 26.1%. Without China , the final inventory falls from 12.3 to 11.4% of consumption, well below average. The new USDA estimate has triggered little price movement on the Chicago Stock Exchange . There was a slight tendency to drop prices.The market participants' expectations were set for major corrections to the supply situation. In particular, one had hoped for more reliable numbers in the specific trade between the USA and China. When it comes to grain trade in Europe , increasing EU exports prevail over declining Russian exports. EU exports are estimated at approx. Estimated 42 million tons, while Russian exports are no longer expected to reach 45 million tons. The EU's competitiveness has increased thanks to the low euro exchange rate and moderate purchase prices, while the Russian leadership is concerned that its own supplies could be jeopardized . Only the strikes in France disrupt a smooth course. The EU overhang stocks drop from 30 to below average 26 million t. The locust plagues in large parts of Africa and in Pakistan once again attract attention. However, purchasing power is often lacking for additional imports.
