USDA Feb 2021 estimate: scarce supply with outstanding risks The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) only slightly reduced the global grain supply in its Feb. 2021 issue . Production in 2020/21 will amount to 2,212 million t; consumption is estimated at 2,223.5 million t. This means that the calculated final stocks (EB) fall to 620.4 million t or an above-average 27.9% of consumption compared to previous values of 30%. The high but unavailable Chinese final stocks are regularly subtracted, so that a price-determining supply figure of 15.2% EB for consumption without China results. The result is 1 percentage point below the previous year, but significantly below the previous years with 20%. In the case of the wheat supply , the situation looks a little more favorable. A production of 773 million t is compared to an expected consumption of 769. million t. The inventory at the end of the marketing year is declining somewhat, but still remains above the 300 million t mark of the previous years.The maize supply , on the other hand, is to be assessed more critically. An estimated production of 1,134 million t is compared with an expected consumption of 1,150.5 million t . At 286 million t , the stocks are well below the previous levels of 300 to 350 million t. If you take out the Chinese quantities that are not available for the rest of the world, then only 90 million tons remain for any uncertainties in supply until the new marketing year. The remaining harvest risks in South America must be taken into account. In Brazil, maize is currently being delayed as a catch crop after soy. The USDA left the Brazilian harvest estimate unchanged at 109 mln t . There is still considerable potential for risk in this. In addition, there is the unabated high import behavior of China with an expected 24 million t or a tripling compared to the previous year.The expectations of the exchange participants were set up for significantly tight USDA supply figures. The prices in the run-up to the publication were correspondingly high and have now given way. Wheat prices in Chicago fell from around € 200 / t to € 193 / t, and corn prices from € 182 to € 176 / t. On the Paris stock exchange , wheat and corn only fell by between € 0.75 and € 1 / t .
