Oilseed market: above-average supply situation puts pressure on prices The USDA is only slightly correcting its global oilseed estimate downwards in February 2024 compared to the January 2024 edition. Soy plays the decisive role with around 60% market share. Compared to the previous year, production is estimated to be +5.3% higher. Brazil, as the world's largest producer, accounts for a decisive share (40%). Despite the current slight reduction, the current harvest of 156 million tonnes is considered the second largest to date. In the previous year a record result of 162 million t was achieved. Nevertheless, a record export volume of around 100 million tonnes is expected this year. Brazilian agricultural authorities are more pessimistic with a harvest estimate of 149 million tonnes. The US harvest completed in autumn 2023 is still classified at 113.3 million t (previous year 116.2 million t). US exports fell to just under 47 million t (previous year 54 million t). After last year's harvest catastrophe with only 25 million t, Argentina has reached around 50 million t again this year. The South American country usually exports mainly soybean oil, soybean meal and biodiesel. Exports of soybeans are low at around 9%. The USDA continues to estimate global rapeseed production at 87.4 million t, slightly lower than in the previous year. As consumption increases, high inventories are slowly being reduced, but still remain above the multi-year average. The two largest producers are the EU-27 with around 20 million t and Canada with 18.8 million t, both of which together account for around 45% of world production. While Canada exports around 40% of the harvest, the EU-27 continues to rely on imports of around 5.3 million tonnes. EU imports come from Ukraine, Australia and Canada. The other oilseeds have only a limited influence on market and price developments. For the vegetable oil sector, however, palm oil production plays a significant role with an increasing 79.5 million tonnes. This market is dominated by Malaysia and Indonesia with a combined share of around 84%. The original fears of production losses as a result of the El Niño weather situation have not fully materialized. The prices for palm oil have fluctuated up and down between €750 and €780/t in the last few weeks.
