USDA Report: The Pork Market Relaxes In 2022 Global pork production increased significantly by 11% in 2021. The main increases took place in China. With the growing Chinese self-sufficiency, imports have declined. The pig prices in China, which have fallen to less than half, have left their mark on all exporting countries in the world. After the ASF-related relapse from the original 54.5 million t to 36 million t in 2020, China's pork production is estimated to be around 46 million t in the current year. The increase in own production in connection with meat imports of all kinds in the amount of 10 million t lead to a sufficient supply that covers demand. The high price level of 5 to 6.50 € / kg in the meantime has now dropped to 2.20 € / kg. In view of the high feed and construction costs, however, losses are being made at the current price level. By controlling the number of sows around 41 million animals (currently 45 million), the state wants to help stabilize the market at a cost-covering level.The USDA estimates that production will decrease to 43.7 mln t in 2022 and imports will rise again to 4.75 mln t. On the Dalian Stock Exchange, prices around € 3 / kg will be traded again for 2022. For the second largest production area, the EU-27 , the USDA estimates an increase in pork production to 23.7 million t and a slight increase in domestic market consumption of 18.8 million t in the current year. Accordingly, exports of just under 5 million t are expected. In previous years around two thirds of exports to China / HK were at the top, with deliveries from Spain. After the ASP-related import bans for Germany, other EU exporting countries are also feeling the effects of the decreased Chinese import demand and the low prices. For 2022, the USDA expects a slight decline in EU production and consumption as well as slight increases in exports. In the USA , the third largest production area in the world, pork production is at 12.5 million.t will fall again for the first time in 2021 after years of high growth rates. Low US pig prices with occasional quotations below € 1 / kg in 2020 were followed by prices of up to € 2 / kg in the first half of 2021. With the decline in business in China, the current prices have fallen below the € 1.50 / kg mark again. The USDA expects a further decline in production and consumption in 2022, but a slight increase in exports to 3.3 million t. Brazil's growing pork production is estimated by the USDA at 4.3 million tons in 2021. Exports with significant support for deliveries to China are estimated at an increasing 1.3 million t . For comparison: in 2016 it was just 0.6 million t. After a short soaring to € 1.70 / kg and a subsequent drop to € 1.20 / kg at the beginning of the year, Brazilian pig prices are currently around € 1.50 / kg. In 2022, growth rates are expected to continue at a slightly reduced level.Canada's pork production is only slightly in the order of 2.1 million tons. The export also stabilized at 1.55 million t . China is becoming a growing sales region for Canadian pork. Prolonged strikes in the slaughterhouses have temporarily increased live exports to the US. No significant changes in production or export are expected for 2022. Russia 's pork production of 3.7 million tons has outgrown domestic consumption of 3.53 million tons. The export quantities of 0.18 million t, with the focus on deliveries to Vietnam, are comparatively low. The ASF problem that has existed for 15 years has repeatedly affected large numbers of pigs. The increased feed costs are holding back the further expansion of the pig population. For 2022, the USDA is only assuming very limited increases in generation.Conclusion: The improved supply situation in China with falling import requirements and prices has brought exporting countries into sales difficulties in 2021. For the year 2022, the USDA estimates that Chinese production will decline again, which, due to its large share, will have an impact on the entire world market. World trade in pork is expected to increase again by + 2%.
