Feb. 2024: USDA slightly corrects world grain production in 2023/24 The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has updated its estimate of world grain production in 2023/24 in some points compared to the previous month. Slightly more wheat was recorded in the smaller production areas, but less corn in Brazil. Global wheat production is estimated at around 786 million t and remains below the previous year's result of 789 million t. This is offset by a slight increase in consumption of 797 million t. Ending stocks remain around 11 million t below the previous year's figures. The remaining grain, with a focus on corn, was revised down slightly compared to the previous month, but at 1,510 million t remains above the previous year's 1,446 million t. The corrected ending stocks continue to be slightly higher at 348.5 million t than in 2022/23 at 330.1 million t. The USDA publication only caused a short-term price weakness on the stock exchanges, which was subsequently largely corrected. Wheat in Paris again reaches 209.50 €/t (previously 2.10 €/t) for delivery in March 2024. US wheat prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange remain at the 203 €/t mark. While the corn prices in Paris almost completely returned to their original value at €178.75/t, the Chicago corn prices remained at their reduced level. The current price development is particularly influenced by the export countries on the Black Sea, Ukraine, Russia and others. In the case of Russia, a grain export quota will apply from February 15, 2024, which will reduce loadings in the coming weeks and months. Russian export prices have recently become less and less competitive. For Ukraine, negotiations are pending on restrictions on duty-free deliveries to the EU. It is difficult to estimate further market and price developments in the coming period. The focus is still on handling the old harvest, but the less than favorable prospects for the new harvest are increasingly coming into focus. Rising stock market prices are noticeable in the harvest months.
