(AMI) The EU Commission raised its wheat wheat yield estimate for 2019/20 compared with the previous month by 2.4 to 144.9 million tonnes. With a harvest of 144.9 million tonnes, the previous year's result would be significantly exceeded by 11.8%. At that time, heat waves and drought had affected the wheat harvest, especially in northern Europe. Reason for the increased harvest forecast are area and yield increases, which the forecasting service MARS sees for 2019/20. Top wheat producer France is expected to thresh around 37.9 million tonnes of wheat in 2019, down from 3.9 million tonnes in the previous year to 34 million tonnes. In Germany, the harvest of 23.2 million t will be about 3 million t larger than in 2018. The EU Commission lowered its harvest forecast for barley by 0.2 to 61.3 million t compared to the April estimate. For maize, the estimate was reduced by 0.1 to 68.5 million tonnes. The EU Commission sees the soft wheat exports in 2018/19 unchanged at 21 million t and in 2019/20 at 25.5 million t. Imports of maize are expected to be as high in the EU as in 2019/20 at 15.5 million t, as expected in the previous month. To this end, the EU Commission has raised its estimate for maize imports in 2018/19 by 1 to 22.5 million t.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
(AMI) The abnormal weather in Europe - too dry in winter, too warm in March, too cold in May - continues to drive speculation about the amount of grain harvest. With low catches in most parts of the community in April and May, the situation is easing for the crop, while the cold has damaged some of the maize, but its growing season is still long. Nevertheless, the weather provides for speculative potential - until the first threshers are running.
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