Stopped the decline in the stock markets--reached bottom or only stopover?
The observed since early may 2014 to massive decline by around 15% for the time being put a stop. Was the heavy rainfall in the United States, which could lead to impairment in the seed stand and crop losses. The aftermath of the drought in the southern growing areas are incorporated in the calculations of the investors.
The upcoming crop of 2014/15 according to current estimate is slightly smaller than in the previous year, however, the supply situation due to high initial data to a small little cheaper fail. However, the Ridge, the current figures are based on the, is very narrow, so that the equilibrium situation in waver can bring small errors.
The unusual courses have reached a level that is below the average, which matches the estimated supply situation. Therefore, would be to suggest that the now price reached a lower line represents. However a first real harvest pressure is yet, so still further setbacks are not excluded.
For the EU , other minor improvements in Vista are according to recent estimates. High harvests are expected with the exception of Spain and small parts of France. South-Eastern European space with continental air influence can hope for good harvests.
The conditions in the Black Sea region remain uncertain. Official, always optimistic numbers are called, but by the political environment and the actual development of the weather in question is. For importers, the question arises to what extent they rely on the reliability of supplies from the area or better catch the supply risk through diversification of the shopping sites. As a reliable suppliers with quality goods apply that exporting countries of the EU, while the United States due to weak wheat harvest, high prices and transport costs little competitive en appears.
Australia's harvest Nino Wetter is affected by the El at sowing due to drought. The Australian Bureau of agriculture has already downgraded the harvest by 10%. To what extent lack of monsoon rains still affects also the Indian harvest, is still uncertain.
The next months are usually the so called weather markets provide some surprising uncertainties and provide the corresponding price fluctuations.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The decline has come since Anf Mai to stand. The price level is lower than the mean values that fit to the estimated supply situation. But the right weather markets looming just now, which can usually still provide considerable fluctuations. This year may occur even to the harvest price pressure, because sufficient surplus stocks, an early and good harvest for abundant sources provide. The buyer's side is in no hurry, and holding back. Quotations remain appropriately low for the time being. Also for the year is hope of stabilization and growth. The extent remains unclear for the time being.
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