Getreide Cockpit, 21.04.2018

Stock market prices : Prospects for new harvests are becoming more pronounced As the end of the end of the cereal year, the influence of the expected future supply situation increases. The assessments of the overlay stocks are becoming increasingly reliable. Nevertheless, the weather and politics play a significant role in the uncertainty. The upward movement of the wheat decreases. One decisive reason is the high global inventory levels . The already high supply capacity of Russia has increased again due to the loss of purchasing power of the ruble . This is currently pressing on the courses.The upcoming wheat harvests in the coming months will be less heavily traded. In the US , due to drought, an even weaker result for winter wheat is expected. Summer wheat should develop a little cheaper. The impact of cold-delayed delayed Canadian wheat sowing will be announced next week by the Canadian Department of Statistics. The EU wheat harvest is estimated by the various institutions to be between 148 and 155 million tonnes at a close to well-average level. The repeat of the previous year's record harvest is not expected in Russia ; but a good average result of 105 million tonnes is predicted. In China , a lower wheat harvest is expected this year.India is expected to remain dependent on imports. For the time being, the exporting countries in the southern hemisphere , with their after-effects of the dry periods, are not playing a decisive role. The corn prices show much stronger up and down movements. The supply situation from old crops is significantly lower compared to wheat or previous years. The lower overlay stocks ensure an elevated listing level. Price support comes from Brazil, where corn in second crop cultivation is currently suffering from a lack of water . However, the extent of possible crop losses can not be estimated for the time being.Increasing attention is being paid to the seeding conditions of the world's largest US production area . Prevented and prevented orders due to wetness in the south and cold in the north are relativized with the indications that you are still early in the sowing phase and the machine power is sufficient to catch up in a few days and weeks delays. The unusually high temperatures in mid-April have led to rapid sowing in this country and should contribute to a larger than previously predicted harvest provided that favorable growth conditions continue to exist. But there are still some weather risks to survive.Over the next few weeks and months, grain prices will increasingly be caught in the so-called weather markets , which are known to cause further volatility. The tensions in US-China trade relations are playing a less important role in the cereal market.