Getreide News, 03/01/2024

The bears have the upper hand in the wheat market. Over the course of the week, wheat prices on Euronext/Matif fell noticeably and wheat has also lost significantly in value over the past month. Yesterday evening the most traded May contract closed at 196.00 euros/t. Last Friday the contract was still quoted at 199.50 euros/t and on January 31st. there was a closing price of 213.00 euros/t on the Paris Matif display board. In the most traded date in June, corn was traded almost unchanged on a weekly basis, but has lost more than 11 euros per ton since the beginning of the month. The development at the CBoT is somewhat different. Prices were able to rise here over the course of the week, although there are red signs in pre-market trading today. In Europe, price competition from Russia is still the decisive factor, as is export competition from the Black Sea. These have also fallen further this week. As the consulting firm IKAR stated, Russian FOB prices for wheat with 12.5 percent protein content are currently $215/t. and thus another 4 dollars lower than a week ago. This also represents one of the most favorable price levels for Russian wheat in the last four years. Producers' inventories remain high, and the weakening ruble is further aggravating the price decline. This also fits in with the statement by the Russian Minister of Agriculture that they have no interest in a new edition of the grain agreement for Ukraine, as they themselves have sufficient transport capacity. Europe's exports continue to lag behind last year. However, the figures published this week with restrictions indicate that the gap compared to the previous year has eased somewhat. Quotations on the domestic cash market are also under pressure. Farmers are increasingly offering feed wheat, but the industry is only looking for it sporadically. Wet soils in Germany and Eastern Europe are causing market participants to worry about the coming harvest. However, the weather forecast is mostly brighter in the coming days. On the CBoT, however, more solid sales figures and export shipments supported the price development. The development of wheat stocks has improved. Forest fires are now raging in Texas and Oklahoma, but it is not yet officially known whether grain stocks are affected. Corn exports from the USA were also friendly. However, rain showers in Argentina are improving the harvest prospects in the South American country.