DRV: first harvest estimate for 2024 - result below previous years The German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) has based on the Stat. Federal Office of December 22, 2023 made a first harvest estimate for winter crops for 2024. The DRV has partly extrapolated the forecasts of yields per hectare using several years of experience. The result of the total harvest is estimated at around 41 million t (previous year 42.55 million t). In a 5-year comparison, the 2024 harvest remains well below average at -1.4%. The weather-related reduction in cultivated area by -2.6% as well as a reduction in yield of -1% contribute to this. Despite higher spring wheat cultivation, the total wheat area fell by -5.9% compared to the previous year. The yield per hectare is estimated to be only -0.6% lower. The wheat harvest falls to 20.14 million t (previous year 21.53 million t). Compared to the 5-year average, production fell by -2.7%. An increase in winter and spring barley area should largely compensate for the lower yield expectations. The total barley harvest is estimated at 11.01 million t (previous year 11.06 million t). A similar development applies to rye cultivation : a smaller cultivated area should largely be compensated for by increasing yields per hectare. The result is 3.14 million t (previous year 3.15 million t). The triticale area was reduced by -0.5%; However, the area yield is rated 2% higher than in the previous year. The harvest is therefore expected to be slightly better than in 2023. However, in a 5-year comparison, the result is significantly lower at -3.4%. In the case of the corn estimate , the DRV assumes a -5.1% lower cultivated area. A significant expansion of the summer cereal areas with S. wheat, S. barley and oats is intended to limit the corn area. The corn yield is estimated to be -1.5 lower than last year. Accordingly, the harvest result is expected to be -6.5% smaller. However, measured against the 5-year average, the calculation result delivers a harvest increase of +4.6%; but there is still a long way to go until autumn 2024.
