17.
06.22
US export data supports wheat market

Grain News, 06/17/2022

  • Fear of supply bottlenecks
  • Uncertainty Ukraine conflict
  • Heatwave in the US
  • Grain stocks in France in poor condition
  • Start of harvest in parts of Europe
  • US winter wheat harvest at target grades
  • Declining US Dollar


Cash markets in view euros/ton
bread wheat May 19th. May 26. Jun 2 Jun 9 Jun 16 +/-
Hamburg 406.00 431.00 396.00 392.00 396.00 4.00
Lower Rhine 406.00 430.00 397.00 402.00 402.00 10.00
Upper Rhine 411.00 430.00 402.00 407.00 407.00 10.00
East Germany 388.00 411.00 380.00 385.00 385.00 0.00
feed wheat
Hamburg 402.00 407.00 394.00 399.00 399.00 0.00
Oldenburg 402.00 406.00 413.00 409.00 409.00 0.00
feed barley
Hamburg 382.00 377.00 385.00 355.00 355.00 0.00
East Germany 367.00 362.00 370.00 340.00 340.00 0.00
grain corn
South Oldenburg 387.00 392.00 374.00 367.00 370.00 1.00
canola
Hamburg 736.00 736.00 736.00 787.00 764.00 -23.00
Mittelland Canal 731.00 731.00 731.00 731.00 772.00 41.00
soybean meal
Hamburg 481.00 460.00 494.00 492.00 494.00 2.00
Magdeburg 491.00 470.00 504.00 502.00 504.00 2.00
Mainz 496.00 476.00 507.00 507.00 516.00 9.00
rapeseed meal            
Hamburg 496,00 496,00 465,00 360,00 332,00 -28,00
Hamm 503,00 n.n nn 341.00 331.00 nn
Rostock nn nn nn 364.00 nn nn
Lower Rhine 490.00 445.00 400.00 365.00 327.00 -38.00

In Paris, wheat prices rose moderately. Prices on the cash market were also firmer again. Even if the buyers are hardly willing to pay the high prices for the new harvest. The trade is correspondingly calm and the mills in particular are acting cautiously. Temperatures forecast for this weekend could reduce spring wheat yields in the dry regions. The barley harvest is expected to start in some areas. Wheat prices hit new highs on the CBoT but retreated later in the day. The front month recorded growth of 2.7%. In addition to the general uncertainty, the US dollar, which has weakened again, provided buying impetus on the stock exchange. According to the USDA, US exports reached 580,000 tons in the first week of the new season, up 33% on the same period last year. Brazil accounts for the largest share as a buyer. Followed by Mexico and Switzerland. At 582,159 tons, the quantities shipped were also above the previous year's level (+33%). In the case of Euronext corn, the green signs prevailed shortly before the weekend. The leading August increased by 4.5 euros/ton to 339.50 euros/ton.The bulls took the lead on the Chicago Stock Exchange yesterday, driven by the unfavorable weather forecast and the rebounding wheat market. The front month closed with a settlement of the equivalent of 294.35 euros/ton and a profit of $14.25 US cents/bushel. The export business, on the other hand, slowed the rise in prices. The USDA confirmed bookings totaled 280,000 tonnes, down almost 50% from the previous week. At the same time, this is the lowest value since the beginning of this season.

US export data supports wheat market
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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The weather market, high global inflation, the Ukraine war. There are currently many triggers for price movements and this is reflected again and again in volatile trading. The grain markets are currently finding it difficult to find a unified direction and this is also reflected in the volatile trade. The trade corridor in Ukraine is still under discussion, but no solution seems to be in sight, so fears of supply shortages are omnipresent. In view of the current fundamental data, most market participants do not expect a sustained price correction.

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