Australia: weak prospects for harvest in the Nov/Dec 2014

Australia corrected its crop estimate - EL Nino wetter expresses expectations

Australian Department of agriculture (ABARES) has slashed its latest harvest estimates 2014 for wheat rd. 24.6 million tonnes. Last year, 27 million tonnes harvested. were is the reduction of harvest result despite an acreage increased by 2% due to below-average Flächenerträge.

Large regions with a drop in rainfall are observed in the wheat cultivation area in eastern parts of Australia (including Queensland, new South Wales). Although rain is expected this week, however, the ground water reserves are too weak to survive a prolonged losing streak.

The ultimate reason for the pessimism is the expected EL Nino weather phenomenon. In a usual course of this weather patterns of South-Eastern of Australia will be half von dryness in the 2. The Australian wheat harvest falls in the period von Nov to Dec. Too little precipitation could threaten so the off maturity phase and thus the bulk of the income formation. But jed El Nino phase is slightly different.

Negative experiences has been already completed Sorghum crop, which has brought only half as large yields compared to the multi-annual average. Also the weak failed cotton harvest supported the fears of too little water in floor stock.

El Nino brings higher temperatures with reduced rainfall. This sharply increases the rate of evaporation and will withdraw the necessary soil moisture the plants. The result is to small grain formation with negative consequences for the crop quantity and quality of the crop.

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