China's wheat harvest: prospects - less import demand

China expects rising wheat crop - weather plays with

China's wheat harvest is about half such as the United States and only a quarter of them like for example Australia with estimated 123 million tonnes which create all other producers of wheat 's second largest behind the EU with approximately 145 million tonnes.

Yet no longer succeeded the Chinese in recent years, achieving a sufficient own needs. The considerable increases of the Chinese import volumes have brought the world market in motion, because so far the objective to hold one at least 95% self catering, no longer has been reached.

For the upcoming harvest of 2014, the first estimates provide a slightly increase in profit that is estimated around 2 million tonnes over the past 2 years. In the main production areas of Hebei, Shandong, Henan and Anhui are about two-thirds of Chinese wheat harvested. The observations of the last weeks and months suggest that the estimate can be quite. The precipitation is moving in the upper mid-range of the long-term average of the seasonal normal rainfall.

For the coming weeks, but longer periods of low precipitation are expected. Because the main crop falls in the month of June, these prospects are quite favorable. In the past few years, there has been ever continuous rain which made the quality of wheat for food purposes unusable.

Should the crop forecast is actually arrive, it is expected, that China only 3 million tonnes of wheat (year 7 million tonnes) import is. Cereal imports will require no better reason, because the wheat consumption in China is estimated to annually 125 million tonnes. In recent years had to be used because of weak harvests on the stock reserves, as well as imports, to cover the consumption. It continues catching up to do to secure the supply situation on the desired level.

The weather phenomenon EL Nino will have on not much Chinese wheat harvest, because the effects only in the summer and fall can be expected.

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