EU cereal harvest 2017: anyone who appreciates better – EU-com or COCERAL? To position itself in the market correctly are not only the past harvest results like E.g. the overlay stocks of importance, but it comes to the question, what possible outcome will take the upcoming season. You can rely partly on relatively secure data such as acreage and experience, but the big risk of a true estimate of the strongly weather-dependent Flächenerträge is difficult to get into the handle. While the treasure institutions go different ways and consequently cause different results. The European Commission has estimated 2017 with end of February the upcoming EU cereals crop on a total of 313 million tons . Is a plus of approximately 18.5 million tonnes last year. Wheat achieved the strongest growth with an increase of 8.5 million tonnes compared with very weak last year, which has experienced significant damage by extensive rainfall during the summer months. The crop losses of 30% were in France alone. After two weak years of maize, the EU Commission with 66.6 million tonnes expected a 10% higher result for 2017. For the other types of grain, one also assumes an improvement to the previous weak year by an average of 4%. The Commission used - if any - officially imposed acreage and average returns, to evolve in the middle of the year. The Confederation of farmers and cooperative associations COCERAL predominantly takes the estimates of its member associations in the individual EU Member States and compiles the results. This conviction, it turns out that the disastrous wheat crop with a focus in France and some other countries, will never happen again. The forecast result when the wheat is to 150.5 million tonnes and is thus comparable with the EU Commission estimate. In the case the maize harvest focus to COCERAL estimates very strongly on the two previous results and therefore lie by around 10% below the projections of the EU Commission. This assessment is to watch also two other cereals . As a result the COCERAL estimate comes only 296.5 million tonnes 2 million tons more than in the previous weak year. The key different approach lies in the assumption of income at the level of previous years, with the exception of wheat. After all, both institutions assume according to current knowledge, expecting top results nor disastrous harvests for 2017 . Should keep right COCERAL, will occupy the grain prices a solid-rising trend , because the overlapping stocks from the expiring year well below average. However, the international market plays also an important role.
