EU-COM cuts crop 2019/20 to 310 million t - well average supply situation In its most recent July issue of ongoing crop estimates, the EU Commission (EU-COM) reduces EU grain harvest from 313 to 310 million tonnes. With the acreage remaining unchanged at 56.2 million ha, the expected yield on 5.5 t / ha is responsible for the crop reduction. On the use side , volumes in the order of 289.5 million tonnes are estimated to be slightly higher than in the previous year, but remain within the longer-term increase in consumption. The main reason for this is the higher feed consumption, which significantly reduces the high corn imports in the previous year as a result of the drought. Falling livestock curb higher domestic use. Despite the strong Russian competition, the EU Commission estimates again rising export figures of the order of magnitude of approx. 39 million t. The cereals balance 2019/20 results in rising final stocks amounting to 50 million t.The multi-year average of recent years ranges from 35 to 40 million t. The EU supply situation in 2019/20 is, according to the figures of the EU-COM, more than average good . However, there are still some crop risks to survive. In the case of wheat , only about 150 million t are expected. The EU-COM forecasts an export volume of approx. 26.6 million t. In such a case, ending stocks would increase only slightly to an average of 15.5 million tonnes. The barley harvest is estimated at 50 million t. While winter barley delivered quite good yield per hectare, summer barley volumes are below expectations. 8.8 million t are predicted for export. Rye and triticale only achieve below-average yields of less than 40 dt / ha. After all, the harvest results are sufficient to replenish the heavily decimated inventories of the previous year. The corn harvest estimates the EU-COM at 69.5 million tonnes with 8.8 million hectares of crop and an expected yield of 7.9 tonnes / ha.Reduced harvest forecasts in the western Member States are contrasted with well-average yield forecasts in the south-eastern European regions. However, some weather risks are still to be overcome until the harvest. The EU-COM estimate now adapts to the lower forecasts of other estimators. There are only minor differences between Coceral and the EU estimate, which are within the estimation error range. However, there is still a significant difference between the latest IGC forecast of 305.7 million tonnes. The USDA estimate from the beginning of July comes to 307.8 million t. Other institutes are also within this range. Despite reservations about the harvest forecasts, the impression remains that a good average EU harvest will be achieved in 2019/20. The drought-induced weak result of the previous year will not be repeated, even though some risks still have to be overcome.
