16.
09.14
17:48

To expect weak connection harvests in the southern hemisphere

Australia's grain crop is suffering from El Nino drought

In its latest report, the Australian Department of agriculture (ABARES) has the initial estimates at the beginning of a promising production period clearly withdrawn. The results are even the numbers of the USDA report.

The wheat has to fight drought in almost all areas. The further prospects promise little improvement of precipitation conditions until the harvest in the Nov/Dec 2014, below-normal rainfall is expected in some regions. With 24 million tonnes is the estimated harvest results well below the average of the previous years with approximately 26 million tonnes or - 8%.

In the feed grain - consisting of corn, barley and sorghum the decline is appreciated by 12.5 to 11 million tonnes or 11%.

In global terms, Australia to the connection providerscount when in the northern hemisphere harvests are completed. In this year of 2014/15 is to be expected that due to the low harvest results Australia will contribute to a reasonable reduction of the otherwise favorable supply situation this year.

Exports be withdrawn but still more clearly. Wheat exports should fall by the three-year average of 21 million tonnes to 18 million tonnes. The main reason is seen in the modest Chinese import demand. In the feed grain, the export decline is prized by 8 on 5.5 million tonnes or - 32%.  In this case the competitors - high corn crops are considered United States - above all reason.

The monetary value of Australian exports is shrinking even more, because the export prices have fallen sharply.

The importance the connection supplied by the harvests in the southern hemisphere is reduced by around 3.5 million tonnes lower ranked Argentine grain harvest - primarily corn-zusätzlich. Given the high harvests of the northern hemisphere, the decline in exports of both countries will have limited on prices. However preisstabilisierende effects are possible during the 2 half years, insofar as they are not yet priced.

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