14.
06.14
09:52

Harvest forecasts 2014/15 in comparison

harvest estimates of 2014/15 for cereal compared

leading institutions in the nutrition sector try several times a year with forecasts for the coming harvest. While the facilities develop different methods. Consider also the different release dates are so different is the degree of timeliness. In the present case dated the oldest estimate by the FAO by the beginning of may, i.e. a whole and important month of intelligence is missing.

first falls despite different subtotals, the direction of a smaller harvest 2014 / 15 to match the previous year. This is to explain that the subsequent harvest is first calculated using assumed average yields after a record harvest with above-average Flächenerträgen. Surprising consensus ratio with average 20% at the final supply assessment with the help of closing stock and stock to use supply number. The deviation of the FAO figures is to explain the lack of timeliness. In assessing the data treasure error er areas are between 3 and 5% to take account of.

the overall harvest estimates are to be judged as rather by their change due to different survey methodology, less from the side of absolute numbers. This is the estimate of the US Department of agriculture (USDA) with a significantly lower decline of 25 million tons to about 40 million t of the other two institutions. In a temporal information advantage of the favourable production conditions should have played a role in recent times.

the consumption estimates basically as a result of increasing world population, rising incomes and increasing livestock generally higher. The moderate increases in demand in industrial consumption are very reluctant to classify. The boom period of dating back many years in bio energy is transferred in a stagnation phase.

low wheat harvests in a tolerable range are anticipated by all the institutions. In the case of other cereal - to about 80% of corn the different information stands for sowing and the are - to take into account existing assessment.

in the result is though to determine the harvest 2014/15 is rated somewhat lower than in the previous year, but the supply situation - measured on the final stocks - about the same on average may be.

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