High Black Sea crops in competition for the EU cereal exports

UkrAgroConsult appreciates high harvest results in the Black Sea region

The Ukrainian consultancy, UkrAgroConsult estimates slightly higher yields of 3 Black Sea States Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan to 168.5 million tonnes than in the previous year. The USDA has classified the Black Sea harvest so far to 161 million tonnes. The international grain Council IGC is only just under 149 million tonnes.

The Russian harvest is prized on approximately 97 million tonnes. This order of magnitude is moving well below the estimate of the Russian following of around 100 million tonnes. But a number of other institutions are with 90 to 95 million tonnes also significantly below the results of consultants and of the Minister for agriculture. With 85 million tonnes is the IGC estimates completely out of the frame. This is impressive on the drying phase in the Volga district and the South Siberian mounting Strip pointed out. On the other hand is the focus of Russian wheat cultivation in the Southern District and the North Caucasus region, which could have enough rainfall.

Clearly staged Ukrainian harvest of 53 million tonnes (previous year 57.6 million tonnes) is expected to have weather-related as well as financial reasons. The political instability have impacted negatively on the financial sector resulting in high rates of inflation. The operating fund raising may have suffered. To what extent remains unclear for the time being. The IGC is considerably cheaper in the assessment with 56 million tonnes. The USDA result with just under 60 million has been even higher.

Critically, the question will be to answer to what extent Ukrainian exports will take place. Avoid inflationary effects is selling as well in an interview as the uncertainty about the reliability of supply under the prevailing political conditions. The unusually intense shopping activity in Egypt and a number of neighboring countries in the past two weeks suggests a wide range of Importherkünfte from France via Romania, Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan. You can argue about the motivation: fear of supply shortages and rising prices in the further course of the year?

The estimate for Kasaschstan is surprisingly high. According to climate records, both Dewinterizing damage and drought would contribute to a significantly reduced harvest. The USDA estimate amounts to 16 million tonnes, while the IGC estimated at 17.9 million tonnes ends up.

The Black Sea region is a decisive competitive factor in the Indian summer / autumn months. The time until the onset of the winter must be used. The competition in the EU is a large harvest rifle at foot with much better quality and high reliability. The United States can talk with hardly crucial eastern wheat due to weak harvest and high prices and transport costs in sales area of the States of the Mediterranean and of the middle.

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