GC cuts US corn crop by 30 million t - Global supply decline - 42 days of corn supply The International Grains Council (IGC) has estimated the global grain supply in 2019/20 significantly lower in its June issue. According to the calculations, inventories at the end of the grain year from 645 to 590 million . t or 26.9% of consumption fall back. If we leave out China with more than 50% of the world's grain reserves but without any significant participation in the export market, the remaining stocks are only enough for 283 million tonnes or 16% of consumption or 59 days. The main reason for the reduction in the grain harvest in 2019/20 is the crop-related losses on US corn , which was reduced by approx. 30 million t was cut. Long-lasting rains have partly prevented sowing in the US Cornbelt, but to a considerable extent they have been delayed by almost a month. In some traditional growing areas, 85% of planned land was not yet ordered at the end of June. For corn it is too late, for soy it is just enough. The American grain harvest falls from over 430 milliont in the two previous years to below 397 million t. A crop cut in manageable size has also been made for Australia , where certain regions still suffer from drought. Although a moderate El Niño weather phenomenon is expected this year, precipitation remains below average. This will also affect India , where the necessary monsoon rains have started late. In the growing regions of the Black Sea , the crop estimates remain at a high level. Russia's grain harvest is still estimated at 119 million tons and the Ukrainian harvest at a slightly higher 70 million tons . Both countries together account for almost 100 million tonnes of exports or 25% of world trade . For the EU , the IGC estimates a harvest of slightly increased 309 million t. The number is in the good average. The EU-KOM estimate of 314 million tonnes differs from other estimates.In the corn sector , a tighter supply situation is expected. Excluding China, a global corn crop of 835 million tonnes is equivalent to 855 million tonnes of consumption . The compulsory inventory reduction leads to final stocks of 96 million tonnes o. China. Thus, the supplies last only for 42 days. By contrast, the wheat market is quite well positioned. Wheat production or China is estimated at 637 million tonnes and consumption at 628 million tonnes . This results in a further buildup of 147 million t, which represents a secure supply situation. The supplies are sufficient for approx. 87 days . In China, it is estimated that 127 million tons of wheat are stored, which is 46% of the world's total. As a rule, almost nothing is exported, because the state-influenced price level is above the world market prices. The stock market prices remain at an elevated level. The Sept. 19 wheat in Chicago is quoted at 543 cts / bu (176 € / t). The corn prices have initially set at 445 ct / bu (154 € / t).On the Paris Stock Exchange wheat is priced at € 182 / t and corn at € 178.50 / t. The cultivation report of the US Department of Agriculture this Friday evening is eagerly awaited and could provide some movement.
