Signs of bottoming

Even good US seed stand - fears of insufficient rainfall in August--stock prices stabilize

Weekly report of seed stand of the USDA last Sunday showed no significant changes. the winter wheat harvest is largely completed with the known weak earnings to 83%. The summer wheat and corn stocks are assessed further "good to excellent" 70% and 75% respectively.

While the corn stocks have gone through the critical phase of pollination to a considerable extent, the ultimate yield formation stage in August is imminent for the soybean. Soybean stocks are currently downgraded to 71% in the category "good to excellent" by some points.

The weather Outlook for the Midwest of the United States have significantly reduced rainfall for the next 14 days. The few rain amounts vary regionally right. There is the fear that the month of August to dry could be, with the result that the currently high traded Flächenerträge take significant damage.

Against the background of the price development, increasingly other countries come to the fore. Large areas of Australia in Queensland and new South Wales have now to fight water scarcity. Of South and Western Australia had however favourable launch conditions for harvesting in the Nov. Dec 2014. However, it is to be expected with the El Nino weather phenomenon. The Australian Government has lower estimated the harvest at around 10.

It remains unclear how the uncertainties of the Ukraine conflict affected. How big are the actual harvests particularly in the Ukraine are? Was in financial troubles and the uncertain anticipation of the introduction of crop adequately fertilized or down? how much of the harvest must be written off in the crisis areas?

On the stock market the assessment prevails, that the previous fall in the prices was sufficiently large failed to cover the expected high harvest of 2014/15 Bill. In the wheat sector you will wait first price increases recorded. In the case of maize on the upcoming USDA report on 12 August, to see to what extent an expected promotion of Flächenerträge will lead to an increase of U.S. and world corn harvest.

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