Ukraine: lower harvests and exports 2014/15

Wheat and corn harvests weaker

An expert meeting of the USDA with Ukrainian agricultural consultants, market insiders and public representatives of the agriculture served the purpose of 2014 to assess the prospects for the harvest in early April 2014.

It was noted that the year's crops with winter cereals about 5% smaller fallen off. The seed stocks look better than average and have evolved rapidly. The sowing of summer with a focus on corn and sunflower should be remained stable in the same extent. The spring sowing was quickly gone due to the dry weather.

Seed, fertilizer, pesticides and fuel between 30% and 40% have resulted in a substantial increase of resources the financial difficulties of the Ukraine. However, you heard not the full cost pressure, because partial measures of fertilizer in the autumn have taken place and at the other utilities advance purchases have been made in the autumn. Although this is not for everyone.

However, it was dealt with the fertilizer and crop protection usage more economical than usual. It is estimated that about 80% of the usual measures have taken place. Therefore, one must assume that the income level of the wheat - 6.4% and the corn to-12% worse than the exceptionally good year. However pointed out that crucial for the formation of income the upcoming months will be may and June with their regular very low precipitation. Worried the low ground water supply due to the low snow falls in winter.

Amount to estimates that as a result, that a wheat harvest in the amount of 20 million t (last year 22.3 million tonnes) and a corn harvest of 26 million tonnes (previous year 30.6 million tonnes) can be estimated. While sunflowers with a low harvest is estimated, it is in case of soybeans from a slightly higher result of harvest.

The estimation results of the expert panel is largely consistent with the USDA forecast from early may 2014.

Subject to weather-related problems in the next few months is to be expected given the lower crop expectations with lower exports in the autumn of 2014 from the Ukraine. May the high inflation rate leads to a sales restraint, to protect yourself against inflation with sturdy agricultural products.

For the EU expected an increasing export of grain in the year 2014/15 as compensation for the lower levels of the Ukraine. From the United States is considering extremely weak wheat harvest anyway not with large amounts of supply. Therefore, the main import areas are on the Mediterranean coast of North Africa and the middle coast will focus on the EU.

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