USDA Apr. 2021- Supply balances 2020/21 for grain - hectic price reaction on the stock exchanges The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) only slightly increased the global grain supply in its April 2021 issue. Production in 2020/21 will be 2,222.7 million t; consumption is estimated at 2,245 million t. This means that the calculated final stocks (EB) fall to 611.2 million t or a 27.2% reduction in consumption compared to previous values of 30%. The high Chinese final stocks, which are not available for export, are regularly deducted, so that a price-determining supply figure of 15.1% EB for consumption without China results. The result is around 1% point below the previous year and falls well below the multi-year averages. The 2020/21 world grain market will remain under-supplied. In the case of the wheat supply , the end result was reduced due to consumption. An unchanged estimated production of 776.5 milliont contrasts with an increasing consumption of 781 million t. The inventory at the end of the fiscal year fell to 295.5 million t. The changes are almost entirely due to increased consumption in China. The corn supply , on the other hand, is to be assessed more critically. A slightly increased production of 1,137 million t is compared with an increasing consumption of 1,156.2 million t. At 283.8 million t , the stocks are well below the previous levels of 300 to 350 million. If you factor out the Chinese quantities that are not available for the rest of the world, then only 87.7 million tons remain for possible supply uncertainties until the new marketing year. This results in an unusually short supply for 37 days. Despite the delayed sowing of maize as a catch crop, the USDA estimates the Brazilian harvest unchanged at 109 million t .Sufficient rainfall is currently ensuring favorable growth conditions; However, the harvest phase from May / June 2021 will be decisive. China's maize imports are estimated to be unchanged at 24 million tonnes, or tripling compared to the previous year. The expectations of the exchange participants were high before the USDA publication. First, the corn prices rose to a record level and then fell by around 4 € / t within 3 hours. . Wheat prices in Chicago fell by € 2 / t during the same period and are now just under € 199 / t, while corn prices have risen at € 191 / t for the time being. On the Paris stock exchange , maize rose by almost € 2 / t to € 217.25 / t, while wheat only rose by € 1 / dt to € 212.50 / t. With the weekend ahead, stock market reactions are usually rather cautious.
