22.
12.23
Milk market says goodbye for the Christmas holidays

Milch News, 12/22/2023

Bullish
  • high demand for cheese - lower stocks
  • recently less milk than in the previous weeks
  • Mold butter demand
Bearish
  • Buyer's wait-and-see attitude
  • lack of international competitiveness
  • Euro/dollar ratio
Quotation results dairy products Germany:
Skimmed milk powder (food grade), €/t
12/20/23 2,600 until 2,750
12/13/23 2,650 until 2.770
Branded butter (shaped 250 g), €/kg
12/20/23 5.80 until 5.92
12/13/23 5.80 until 5.92
Block butter (loose, 25 kg)
12/20/23 5.35 until 5.50
12/13/23 5.40 until 5.70
Gouda/Edamer, block (48%/45%/40% fat i.tr.), €/kg
12/20/23 3.95 until 4.15
12/13/23 3.90 until 4.10

After the decline in the previous week, more milk volumes were delivered again in the 49th calendar week. However, the milk quantity from the previous week is still a significant 2.4 percent lower; compared to the year to date, the dairies had around 1.4 percent more raw milk available for processing. Spot market prices are trending downwards. For the 50th calendar week, the ife Institute reported a value of 35.7 cents, another 2.7 cents/kg less than in the previous week. Industrial cream and skimmed milk concentrate are showing declining price trends for the third week in a row. Many market participants have already significantly reduced their activities this week and said goodbye to the Christmas holidays. The upcoming Christmas holidays have further increased consumer appetite for packaged butter. The calls are at a high level and significantly exceed the call volumes of the previous year. Overall, however, manufacturers are registering slightly lower outgoing goods compared to the previous week. The listing in Kempten remained unchanged. There will be no further price quotations in Kempten this year. Block butter is also trading in a predominantly calm manner this week.In some cases there is a slight increase in interest on the part of buyers, but for the most part there is still a wait-and-see tendency. The listing in Kempten fell on Wednesday. Butter prices rose in the last Global Dairy Trade Tender this year, but European goods lack competitiveness despite the increase. The very dynamic development of the cheese market continues into the Christmas week. Stock levels remain low and relatively young. Due to the lack of delivery warehouses in the coming week and the week after next, a slight increase in inventory is expected. Consumers continue to buy large quantities of semi-hard cheese from food retailers, which in turn purchase large quantities from cheese producers. Bread goods were able to increase slightly in the Hanover listing, while block goods were quoted unchanged. The powder markets hardly move. Many retailers have already stopped or reduced their activities this week. Manufacturers mainly produce skimmed milk powder to order. New business with short-term delivery dates was hardly registered this week.Discussions take place for later delivery dates, but these do not always result in agreements. The quotation in Kempten was reduced on both sides of the trading range and skimmed milk powder also recently fell on the EEX. The GlobalDairyTrade Tender also showed weaker trends for the powder. The quotations for animal feed products, on the other hand, are stable with an overall manageable business development. The transactions for whey powder were also manageable. The calls from the manufacturers were at the agreed level and there was hardly any additional need. Buyers are mostly still keeping a low profile when it comes to contracts for delivery in the new year. The price for food grades rose slightly on the butter and cheese exchange in Kempten, while the price for animal feed fell slightly due to very weak demand.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The Christmas business particularly boosted demand for cheese and butter. The coming weeks should be quieter. However, the fact that milk volumes are increasing more slowly than in the previous year is giving the market a boost overall.

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