European Commission forecast 2017 to + 0.5% higher EU milk deliveries to 2016 In the Jan issue of the monthly dairy market review, the Commission published a first Preview of the EU dairy market 2017. Total expected an increase in milk production in the year average of + 0.5% compared to the prior year. Overall, the highest result would be thus 2015 only just again. In the 1st quarter of the year 2017 , the delivery quantities are between 1 to 3% under 2016 remain unusually high level. The previous line is presented in the April/May 2017 and exceeded. From the month of June 2017 assuming, that the EU delivery amounts to 1% to 2% over the previous months will be. Developments will be however differently in the various Member States. As before we assume, that as so far in Ireland and the United Kingdom the highest rates of increase of + 3 to 4 occur %. To what extent the Brexit it will change something, remains open. Increases in milk production of 1.5% is expected in Italy due to the attractive high milk prices by 35 to 38 ct / kg. The Italian self catering wheel will rise to more than 70%. In some new EU Member States such as Poland and Hungary also increase potential is suspected. Production increases between 0.4 to 0.6% the Commission appreciates % in Germany, Spain, France and Denmark. In the Netherlands due to the new phosphate limitation a 5% decline in milk production in the year 2017 is assumed. The limitation of animal husbandry requires from the dairy farmers a nearly 10% removal of cow or herds of cattle, which is partially trapped by a milk performance. The measures of phosphate limitation imposed before will take effect from the year 2018. The EU surplus generation should be caught primarily by rising exports . As is expected with an increase in sales in third country markets by 24% in the case of skimmed-milk powder. The exports of cheese will increase by 15%. At butter, expected export increases by 8%. Preisdämpfend have intervention stocks of skimmed-milk powder in the order of about 350,000 t, which back slowly is introduced in the market in the near future. Milk production with the exception of the United States as a very limited is considered at world level . New Zealand will produce less. Australia to claim just his reduced volume and in South America, it is mainly by further declines. In the United States alone, milk production - as in the past to grow even - more than 2%. The shortage of butter and cheese pushes the U.S. milk prices.
