USDA: Oilseed market smaller than expected last month, but above previous year The USDA estimates the oilseed market at 661 million t, lower than the Aug estimate of 663.7 million t. Rapeseed and soybean production in particular is smaller. However, since consumption is also declining, the supply situation changes only insignificantly. In the case of the soy market, the US harvest in particular is being reduced due to drought damage. In contrast, the forecast Brazilian record harvest remains unchanged. However, this year's global soy production is +8.4% higher year-on-year . Since consumption changes only slightly, inventory builds up, which puts pressure on prices. The global rapeseed harvest in the current marketing year only reaches 85.2 million t compared to the previous year with 88.6 million t. The losses occur primarily in the two largest production areas: Canada (18.2 million t) and the EU-27 (19.7 million t). However, as rapeseed consumption continues to rise, significant declines in inventories are expected.A reduced supply situation drives prices to higher levels. Next to soy, palm oil is the second market leader in vegetable oils. USDA estimates remain unchanged from the previous month, but up 2.4% from last year. Because consumption increases at a similar rate, inventories remain at the same level. This contributes to price stabilization. Similar to grain prices , rapeseed prices on the Paris Stock Exchange range between 400 and 475 €/t, although they are higher. After a two-week sinking phase on September 23rd. The latest prices are showing upward trends again. The background is the reduced harvest results for rapeseed and soy and, in particular, the uncertain export opportunities for Ukrainian rapeseed, which usually makes up the largest share of EU imports. Last but not least, higher crude oil prices are supporting prices through the use of rapeseed for biofuels.
