Schweine Cockpit, 23.01.2020

Pork market: holiday-related congestion has been reduced. Prices are stabilizing in Germany: the holiday- related marketing problems have been overcome. The meat supply of 967,343 slaughterings is still high, but the average slaughter weight of 97.9 kg has already fallen. There are still sales difficulties with the high-quality goods and in some regions in the sale of sections to food retailers and processing plants, but the market is on average sufficiently receptive. The V price was left for the 4/5 KW 2020 with 1.82 € / kg in a range from 1.82 to 1.86 € / kg. In view of the advance registrations of 228,700 pigs for the current week, a noticeable relief in the supply is to be expected. The battle numbers will decrease significantly. The tendency to reduce slaughter weights is likely to continue. Domestic demand should stabilize again as the distance from the after-effects of the holiday continues.Third country business with China is still sluggish. The danger of ASP introduction is becoming more dangerous because the localities on the Polish side are only 12 km from the German border. Talks with a Chinese delegation on the application of the regionalization principle are still ongoing. Belgium is said to relieve the market. The previous significant price cuts have apparently provided sufficient sales. The living offer is also no longer urgent. The advertising measures in France did not have the expected impact, so that the quotes had to give way. In Italy there are still sales difficulties that lead to slightly yielding prices. In Spain , the high supply pressure has eased somewhat due to the expansion of the pig population. The expectations are directed towards increasing exports to China. Pig prices can hold their own. Denmark can throw its export potential into the balance, keeping the price level high.In the United States , pig prices for urgent supply and a missing slaughter day (Martin Luther King Day) initially only reach the level of the equivalent of € 1.03 / kg . High expectations are placed on the China business. The market prices for the front month of February-20 are already trading at € 1.34 / kg . In Brazil , prices have now dropped from their pre-Christmas peak of € 1.75 / kg to € 1.63 / kg. Nevertheless, the high price wave for Brazil continues because exports to China are increasing. China: Before the start of the Chinese New Year (from January 25th to February 8th, 2020), the demand for traditional roast pork increases. Given the shortage of supply, prices have jumped again from € 5.79 to € 6.20 / kg . Only after the holidays can prices be reduced again at a high level.The global pork supply will remain very scarce in 2020 and ensure a high price level. The further course of the ASP cases at the German-Polish border and the talks with China on the regionalization concept are causing tension in Germany .