After a century year is a catastrophic year for US pig farmers by 2015

USDA: status and prospects on the U.S. pork market

In the most recent issue of the previews on key agricultural markets, the U.S. Department of agriculture has updated its forecasts for the U.S. pork market. The year 2015 is expected with an increase of approximately 6% throughout the year.

The first quarter 2015 is 6.4% over the battle levels of the previous year. In the 2nd quarter striking increases 3.9% rise but in the third quarter with approximately 4.5% and 5.3% compared to the respective prior-year periods last year section.

Hintergründe for this assessment are the moderate running plague PEDv (fatal diarrhea disease in piglets) in the spring months, the rising stocks of sows in the magnitude 4.6%, as well as the sustained high slaughter weights.

The U.S. pork consumption to put an estimated 8%. The reason is in the relatively cheap pork compared to become very expensive beef in the United States.

The Schweinefleischexport is used down-2% compared to the previous year and 4% higher than 2013. The decisive rationale lies in the strong dollar exchange rate, which makes US pork internationally less competitive. Now the paragraph went back China by half.

After climax of PEDv plague in the 2nd quarter 2014 pig prices obtained from €2 per kg and century gains, is expected for 2015 average pork prices around € 1.30 per kg . While the changed exchange rate distorts the actual purchasing power dollars to euro.

The first months pork prices, between 1.20 to €1.30 per kg have given in the course of the year 2015. Extrapolating to the summer BBQ season with courses to the 1.45-€1.55 / kg. But in the autumn 2015 it should go steeply downhill towards €1.25 / kg.

For the EU two aspects emerge: On the one hand, the world's largest exporter of pork is less competition in the international pork trade, but on the other hand, the low rates in the United States pretend the upper limits for the local price histories.

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