A hard Brexit would be worse than the Russia import ban (Worst Case Scenario) The European Livestock and Meat Trade Association (UECBV) has examined a market situation in the event of an uncompromising exit of Great Britain from the EU for the worst case in the meat sector.Great Britain, as a major net importer of beef, pork and poultry meat would be in the case of beef 84% and in the case of pork, 48% less import from the EU mainland . The beef prices could with the planned exit on 29.Fall by 8% in the remainder of the EU and 7% in pork . This calculation does not take into account the alternative sales to other third countries. Particularly affected are Ireland with a current meat export share to the United Kingdom of 56% and Denmark with an export share of 25% .Only the Danish bacon exports to the British island amount 82%. Dutch meat exports go 13% to the United Kingdom. Almost 10% come from Germany . However, it is not just the quantities that are in question, but also the possible losses in value. British beef prices are on average 10% and pig prices around. 20% higher than in the EU.Ireland is particularly affected because predominantly high-quality cuts with high consumption readiness reach the United Kingdom on short routes. The Northern Ireland effect is particularly serious. For the British meat could be considerably more expensive . The UECBV calculates between 36 and 100% price increases in the case of beef prices, depending on the value of the cuts. For pork , price inflation could be between 20 to 50% .Although the alternative purchase from non-EU export countries is not offset, the long transports, usually from overseas, will be the fresh meat business in particular particularly strong. An increase in prices is also due to the increasing costs of border controls and newly levied import and export duties . The worst-case calculations show that both sides have suffered significant losses .It is therefore in the interest of both parties to negotiate compromise solutions. The meat trading sector is only a small part of the solution for the entire economy.
