Peak charging U.S. pork and beef courses for July and August 2014

US pigs- and beef prices soaring

The forward rates for U.S. pork have applied a soaring since April 2014. Background is the fatal diarrhea disease in piglets (PEDv). The number of weekly infected farms has reached its peak during the cold winter months Jan/Feb/March 2014. Rd. 6 months rearing and fattening period is with a failure of slaughter pigs to be most severely affected are the months of July and August. However, the failures can only be estimated, because the dead pig numbers has not directly been recorded.

The estimates are 7-15% failure rate beyond. Partial compensation is already 5 kg higher slaughter weights has been achieved. Also above-average inventories have been created after the cold storage report.

According to surveys, the stock reach the production outages still triple the previous numbers in the next two months and will then fall back.

The supply situation is exacerbated by the fact that the Barbecue season is still underway in the two coming months. Meeting declining supply at the same time increasing demand drives prices soaring. There is much speculation in the game based on the uncertain judgment of offer development and price-related demand behavior.

The U.S. beef market also faces the dilemma of a drought-induced decline in meat cattle. This development has initiated but longer and with a reinforced to transfer effect of coming on beef and veal consumption is at least half a year reverberate. beef and veal prices pulls up. In contrast to the pork prices, beef prices at a relatively high level will remain.

The futures prices for pork fall back already for the dates of Sept/Oct to €1.50 / kg. The barbecue season end of should also help as an again increasing supply. However remains still open how much to remove the infection pressure. A variety of private and governmental measures aimed at improving hygiene has already shown efficacy. Feverishly working on the development of vaccines. The litmus test will come back in the cold season when the sanitizing of vehicles due to the problem again is frost.

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