29.
09.23
Green signs - but great international competition

Getreide News, 09/29/2023

  • Uncertainties Ukraine
  • fewer milling wheat qualities in Germany
  • global demand at a high level
  • reduced production expectations
  • high amounts of feed wheat in Germany
  • international price competition
  • bountiful harvest in Russia
  • high production forecast Ukraine
  • ongoing maize harvest Northern Hemisphere
  • Record harvest Brazil
Spot markets at a glance Euro/ton
Bread wheat Aug 31 Sep 7 Sep 14 Sep 21 Sep 28 +/-
Hamburg 239.00 244.00 248.00 248.00 250.00 2.00
Lower Rhine 239.00 241.00 245.00 244.00 246.00 2.00
Upper Rhine 236.00 238.00 243.00 242.00 244.00 2.00
East Germany 223.00 228.00 232.00 232.00 234.00 2.00
feed wheat
Hamburg 237.00 200.00 246.00 246.00 248.00 2.00
Oldenburg 234.00 175.00 241.00 240.00 242.00 2.00
feed barley
Hamburg 204.00 200.00 202.00 203.00 205.00 2.00
East Germany 179.00 175.00 177.00 178.00 180.00 2.00
Grain corn
South Oldenburg n.n. 229.00 233.00 228.00 230.00 2.00

Looking at the week so far, wheat prices in Paris have increased. Yesterday, Thursday, despite daily losses, the price was higher than last Friday at 239.50 euros/t in the December date. At that time, 235.75 euros/t in the December contract was on the display board in Paris. Wheat fell slightly on the CBoT. On the other hand, corn gained on both Euronext/Matif and CBoT on a weekly basis. The news this week focused primarily on the export market. The competition on the global market is fierce. Europe's export figures, updated this week, remain below last year's volumes at this time, at 6.87 million tonnes. A year ago there were already 9.41 million tonnes up to the 13th calendar week of the marketing year. The weekly volumes this week were less than 200,000 tonnes, below the average volumes of previous calendar weeks. Nevertheless, there are always export reports and export rumors. Egypt is now said to have purchased 170,000 tons of milling wheat from Romania and Bulgaria. Both countries have prevailed against competition from Russia. However, rumors are spreading on the market that Russia and Egypt are talking about grain deliveries at government level.US exports suffer from strong competition, especially from the Black Sea. Although export figures have recently increased somewhat, they continue to disappoint market participants. Ukraine's transport capacity remains questionable. At the beginning of the week, reports emerged that Russia had again hit targets in the port of Odessa and the Danube port of Ismail. According to Ukrainian information, grain as well as trucks and storage silos were destroyed in the last target in particular. The dispute over Ukrainian deliveries between Eastern European countries and Ukraine has now been resolved. The corn harvest in Europe is in full swing and choppers are also active in the United States. High temperatures are forecast in the Corn Belt for the next few days, which could even reach new peaks for an October month. According to reports, China has purchased ten to twelve shiploads of feed corn from Ukraine. China was also one of the bigger buyers in the US last week. However, many market observers generally expect that the Middle Kingdom will soon be able to purchase more supplies from Brazil.Brazil's export volumes for September show significantly higher export volumes than in September of the previous year, even though demand has recently been somewhat weaker than was expected and forecast a few weeks ago. US ethanol production has increased slightly compared to the previous week, but inventories have also increased. The first harvest reports from Baden-Württemberg show grain maize yields of around 8 tonnes per hectare. 8 to 12 tons are reported in the Palatinate. The situation on the cash markets remains calm overall. Farmers are currently busy with the grain corn harvest and many are not willing to sell wheat at the current price level. But the feed industry also has little activity on the market. In the south, Swiss buyers are looking for feed wheat, and Dutch buyers are also looking for goods on the German market. The prices for bread and feed wheat are firmer on a weekly basis. Barley and corn also increased slightly.

Green signs - but great international competition
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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The grain markets are under pressure. The competitive situation on the international market is great. However, the fact that prices were even able to improve this week is due to the fragile situation on the Black Sea. Russia's recent attacks on Ukrainian ports are severely restricting the ability to deliver. Buyers and sellers on the cash markets are waiting to see further developments.

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