26.
01.24
Canada expects higher wheat production

Getreide News, 01/26/2024

Bullish
  • Solid US export figures for wheat
  • Global grain demand
  • Logistics problems in the Red Sea
  • few milling wheat qualities in Germany
Bearish
  • Canada expects higher wheat production
  • Russia expands winter wheat cultivation
  • Global price pressure due to cheap offers
Spot markets at a glance Euro/ton
Bread wheat Dec 29 Jan 4th Jan 11 Jan 18 Jan 25 +/-
Hamburg 231.00 230.00 228.00 225.00 224.00 -1.00
Lower Rhine 227.00 226.00 224.00 221.00 220.00 -1.00
Upper Rhine 229.00 228.00 226.00 223.00 222.00 -1.00
East Germany 215.00 214.00 212.00 209.00 208.00 -1.00
feed wheat
Hamburg 229.00 228.00 226.00 223.00 222.00 -1.00
Oldenburg 219.00 218.00 216.00 213.00 212.00 -1.00
feed barley
Hamburg 188.00 185.00 185.00 184.00 187.00 3.00
East Germany 163.00 160.00 160.00 159.00 162.00 3.00
Grain corn
South Oldenburg 209.00 209.00 208.00 206.00 205.00 -1.00

Euronext wheat rose slightly again yesterday. The front month of March recorded a gain of 0.75 euros/ton to 218.25 euros/ton. There is still talk of quiet trading on the cash markets. Goods are being sold here and there, but most buyers are taking a wait-and-see approach. In contrast to higher quality wheat, feed wheat in particular is more than readily available in many regions and creates price pressure. After the past very wet weeks and the last frost, as well as floods in many regions, the field stocks are the focus of many market participants. It will probably only be possible to say conclusively how severe the damage to the areas is in the coming weeks. However, upheavals in winter crops will already be unavoidable in many places. Prices on the cash markets are stable to slightly firmer, especially for quality grain. Production in Canada is expected to be 33.3 million tonnes for the coming season. This corresponds to an increase of 4.2% compared to the previous year. In the USA, wheat contracts were able to remain just about in the profit zone. The reason for this was, among other things, the US export figures, which were also published yesterday by the USDA and were at the upper end of expectations. In Russia, a winter wheat cultivation area of 20.00 million hectares is expected. This corresponds to an increase of around one million hectares compared to the previous year. According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, almost 96% of the stocks are in a satisfactory condition. Corn on Euronext/Matif was unable to escape the weak US conditions in yesterday's trading and ended the day with moderate losses. In the USA, corn contracts came under pressure. The most traded March fell $0.50 US cents/bushel to $451.75 US cents/bushel. The disappointing US export figures in particular created a bearish mood shortly before the weekend.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The bulls largely prevailed on the wheat markets this week. Whereas the corn contracts had to give in slightly every now and then. The global conflicts are causing problems with logistics and thus supporting the bullish impulses. The losses are being curbed by global production expectations. In Canada and Russia, larger quantities and a larger acreage are expected for the coming harvest. Grain prices currently seem to be finding it difficult to find a consistent direction.

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