Grain News, 08/12/2022

The wheat prices in Paris and Chicago were friendly in the week that is now ending and were able to increase. The December contract on the Euronext/Matif increased by 2 euros from 325.75 euros/t last Friday to 327.25 euros/t. For the same date, the CBoT went north from 799.25 US cents/bu to 816.25 US cents/bu. The resumption of Ukrainian sea exports limits price developments. More than a dozen ships have been loaded so far and have been able to leave one of the three planned ports. So far, maize and sunflowers have mainly been shipped. However, the case of the ship that was able to leave first shows that exports and deliveries are anything but easy for Ukraine. In Germany, the grain harvest should be over next week. Yields vary from region to region, but the majority of farmers are satisfied with the quantities due to the drought. However, the qualities are problematic in many places. From Hesse, for example, a fluctuation in the protein content between 7 and 12.5% was reported. Many stocks do not meet the requirements for milling wheat.French agricultural consultancy Strategie Grains yesterday kept its forecast for the European wheat harvest unchanged compared to the previous month. The house continues to expect an EU harvest of 123.3 million tons. The EU Commission last forecast the soft wheat harvest at the end of July at 124.89 million tons. The five-year average would thus be undershot by 0.98%. On average, 126.12 million tons were harvested across the EU in the last five years. This is well below the previous year's volume of 131.9 million tons. The Russian harvest has faltered. Many farmers who have foreign harvesting machines in their fleet are finding it very difficult to obtain spare parts due to the sanctions. The Ministry of Agriculture in Moscow was therefore forced to adjust its own export potential downwards. Harvest reports from Romania indicate that the previous year's level in terms of volume cannot be reached. At 9.5 million tons, the harvest there is 1.8 million tons behind the previous year's figure. The previous year's volume was not reached in Bulgaria either. In the USA, the winter wheat harvest has also been somewhat slower recently.According to the USDA, 86 percent of the fields had been threshed by the end of the last few weeks, and 6 percent were already in when the spring wheat harvest started. US spring wheat stocks were also revised down a significant 6% in their condition assessments in the same report. 64 percent are said to be in good or very good condition. This news also gave support to the wheat prices and caused a green sign. Corn prices are also firmer on both sides of the Atlantic in a weekly comparison. The November date on the Matif rose to 334.75 euros/t by yesterday evening and is thus 7.75 euros/t above last Friday's closing price. Above all, concerns about the quantity and quality of the coming corn harvest determine the price development. There has been very little precipitation in the past few days. Strategie Grains therefore lowered its forecast for the EU maize harvest yesterday by a significant 10 million tons to 55.4 million tons. At the end of July, the EU Commission assumed 66.1 million tons. In the previous year, the harvest amounted to 73.01 million tons. The Grains Council there is also reporting high levels of drought stress for the corn plants in the Ukraine and expects significant yield losses accordingly. A similar picture emerges in the USA.Here, too, it is dry and hot in the Corn Belt. For this reason, market participants are expecting reduced yield and volume forecasts for the corn harvest for the August WASDE published today at 6:00 p.m. The state grain agency CONAB in Brazil also reduced its forecast for the local corn harvest slightly. In particular, the second corn harvest is weaker than previously expected.