Grain News, October 8th, 2021

Wheat contracts could no longer hold their gains at the beginning of the trading week and fell slightly. The bulls took the lead again on Wednesday and also made moderate gains in yesterday's trading. On the cash market, the high price level has led to quiet trading. Goods were mainly handled for short-term needs. The prices were stable with a slight upward trend. Rumor has it that some compound feed plants have already cut production. EU exports totaled around 8.07 million tons up to October 3rd. That is an increase of almost 3 million tons compared to the previous year's result. In the last few days, too, the European goods have been used in international tenders. On the other side of the Pacific, futures did not find a single direction. The forward dates ended trading in the red. The weak export figures of 330,000 tons of wheat in particular weighed on trade yesterday. In the previous week, almost 40% more were booked. The weather forecasts for the coming days provided bearish impulses. Abundant rainfall could further increase the yield forecasts. Around 47% of the space has been cultivated so far, reports the USDA.Wheat sowing is also making progress in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the progress is 46%, which corresponds approximately to an area of 3 million hectares. The yield forecasts for this year's harvest have been revised downwards by the ministry from 80.63 to 80.25 million tons. The UZA analysts expect an export volume of 26 million tons for the Ukraine, wheat production is estimated at 33.1 million tons. Meanwhile in Russia it is reported that the harvest this year consists of 87.5% milling wheat, the highest value in over 20 years. Export prices around the Black Sea also rose again this week. On the Matif, corn prices were able to stay in the profit zone despite the weak midweek targets from the wheat market. Shortly before the weekend, the green signs prevailed again. On the other side of the Pacific, corn contracts were only just barely profitable. The front month gained $ 1.75 cents / bushel and costs the equivalent of 181.94 euros / ton. Above all, the increasing pressure on the harvest dampened the bullish sentiment. The USDA confirmed that 29% of the stocks have been harvested.The long-term average was thus slightly exceeded, as was the expectations of the market analysts. The experts from IHS Markit expect a production of 15.085 billion bushels in the USA and are thus more positive than the USDA. Profits were curbed by the price correction in the oil markets. Ethanol production in particular is closely linked to the development of crude oils. Ethanol production has increased again. According to the latest data, daily production was 978,000 barrels / day. This corresponds to an increase of 64,000 barrels compared to the previous week. For the USDA report to be published on Tuesday, market participants expect a slight increase in corn production to 14.973 million tons. This corresponds to an increase of 0.007 million tons.