Kartoffeln Cockpit, 16.08.2019

A drop in the Belgapom share price was already evident earlier this week, as stock market prices fell to € 11.1 / dt for the April-20 date, well below the € 12.5 / dt set by the Belgapom last Friday would have. In the last two weeks, the Belgapom quotes and the most traded April 20 futures contract were often close to each other. However, this coupling is no longer recognizable today, because the sharp drop in the price of raw materials from the Belgian fry producers from last week to today (from 12.50 to now 10 € / dt), the stockbrokers probably no longer want to go along. At the moment the future is trading at 12.2 € / dt and therefore 2.2 € / dt higher than the current listing. Regular rainfall over the mainland of Northern Europe had a negative effect on the stock market listing. The drop to 11.1 € / dt on Wednesday was then many traders but too low. Meanwhile, the 12 € mark were repeatedly exceeded. How close the supply of potatoes still is is shown by the price of fresh potatoes. The buying interest from Eastern Europe and now also Italy is slowing down the seasonal price decline.However, Thursday's solemnity of the Assumption in Poland made suppliers from the UK feel how fragile the demand is from there. Although the prices for 45 / 60er caliber for the time being, but the competition from Germany and France for deliveries to Poland, the Czech Republic and Italy is now increasing. Smaller potato crops are also expected in Romania and the Ukraine. These countries had otherwise been supplied in Poland, where the harvest so short this year that you had to start now with imports from the West. Exporters from Germany and France are ready. According to the national statistics office Agreste, France should harvest even very high potato yields and even grow a record crop of 6.6 million tons of consumer potatoes this year with larger acreage this year. In the meantime, however, criticism has been raised against this message from statisticians. Market participants criticize that sampling only came from irrigated areas. However, only 60% of the potatoes in France can be irrigated. It is therefore expected that this first estimate will have to be revised downwards in the coming weeks.Unpleasant areas suffered particularly during the heatwaves in June and July and some of them did not get started after the rain. In addition, the potato market in this country is still supported by the marketing advantage and exports. From the early areas of the Palatinate, the German Lower Rhine and Lower Saxony potatoes are hardly ever loaded in other German states, because all regions can now supply locally grown potatoes with potatoes, but the exports keep the turnover from the surplus regions going. Bad harvests in Eastern Europe are holding up the opportunity for a satisfying price level this season. As a result, the most heavily traded futures contract on processed potatoes on EEX has now been decoupled from daily events in Belgium. How big the imagination of the market participants will get away from it is difficult to predict. From the experience of the last few years, at the latest from the end of November, when the Leipzig Derivatives Exchange begins its weekly calculation of its potato index, there is a close link between the current cash market, which the index reflects well, and the next April date on the derivatives exchange.Up to this, even for speculators, better market transparency, but it still takes three months. During this time, we will still receive a lot of crop estimates and test results that give us reason to influence market sentiment and, hence, the price of the futures contract. Although the market supply of potatoes is now better again than in the last marketing year, the season just started should also be full of surprises