19.
05.18
Good mood on the futures market is not fundemental

Kartoffeln Cockpit, 19.05.2018

  • Stock market price April19 continues to rise
  • Less demand for frit raw material
  • Higher temperatures cause offers to rise

In Germany, too, the prices for frit raw materials declined. Due to delayed planting dates, after a long period of restraint, some factories had bought free raw materials and thus stimulated market fantasies. But that seems to be over now, because this week the prices in Germany slipped back to the level of five weeks ago. This also made itself felt in the index of the derivatives exchange EEX, which on Thursday at 5.6 € / dt by 10 cents gave way. The decline is caused solely by the weaker by 54 cents German price reports. All other registrations (NL, F, B) left their quotes at the previous week level. The industry continues to supply itself with pre-purchased potatoes and also takes them off on time. The systems are thus still running at full speed. It is said that the connection to the new crop should be guaranteed. Price increases are not expected in the cash market in the coming days. On the other hand, there is a very different mood amongst the participants in the derivatives market. The April 19 date rose this week to € 16.8 / dt, the highest level for this maturity. Since the beginning of May, prices have improved to this level.At that time it became clear that the plantings would be delayed by up to 14 days, which stimulated the mood. Meanwhile, the planting in Europe is coming to an end. Whether this negatively affects the yields for potatoes of the main crop is generally doubted. Fundamentally, there was little news in the past week, except that there were more reports on the acreage in Europe. In Germany, there is the second largest potato cultivation in seven years, noted the AMI, as it evaluated the reports of crop reporters. With 249,000 hectares, 2.1% fewer potatoes were cultivated here than in the previous year. It is striking that fewer table potatoes were grown and instead more processing raw material. Whether that means the next crop will be big again, you can not say at the moment. Only in August, this question should clarify. This is the month in which the decision is made whether the potatoes of the main crop have got enough rain.But it is no secret that in recent years, the yields per hectare have risen steadily, because the breeders are always offering higher yielding varieties and because always better cultivation technology is used. Especially farmers, who have been able to profit from the great sales successes of the potato processors of French fries on the world market, have made good money with the potato cultivation and thus they were able to optimize their cultivation ever further. It has not been lost to these farmers, too, that prices on the futures market of more than € 16 / dt were driven up by sentiment and not by fundamentally explainable circumstances. The producer group REKA Rheinland can not explain or understand this positive mood. This is evident from the market information published today by the association.

Good mood on the futures market is not fundemental
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The demand for free processed potatoes was also quiet in the past week. With the higher temperatures, however, the supply from agriculture increased, which ensured that higher prices are currently out of the question. Some prices even fell, including prices for the Fontane variety or, in Holland, export prices. Due to the public holidays in May, potato trading has slowed down.

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